Eric Lauer is waiting. And not alone.
According to the latest reports, the arbitration hearing between Lauer and the Toronto Blue Jays took place on Tuesday, with the ruling expected to be announced next week, just before pitchers and catchers gather at Dunedin. On the surface, it’s a routine arbitration. But the deeper you look, the more it resembles a test of precedent that the entire MLB is quietly watching.
Lauer submitted a $5.75 million salary for the 2026 season. The Blue Jays responded with $4.4 million. The $1.35 million difference isn’t a figure that shakes a team’s budget. But in a “choose one or the other” arbitration system, it places emphasis on how value is defined — and the return.
Lauer’s case is complicated by the path he took to get here. Before the 2023 season, he avoided arbitration with the Brewers on a one-year $5.075 million contract. Then everything fell apart. A nightmare season: 6.56 ERA, 7.41 FIP, -0.9 fWAR, relegated to Triple-A, outright removed from the 40-man roster, and ultimately released.
Seeing his MLB career seemingly over, Lauer chose a path few dared to take: going overseas to start over. Two months at the KBO at the end of 2024 didn’t bring flashy numbers, but it did give him a crucial indicator — his highest K-BB% of his career (16.7%). Enough to open the door back to North America, enough for the Blue Jays to sign him on a minor-league contract.
And then, step by step, Lauer climbed back up.
In the 2025 season with Toronto, he didn’t just “survive.” He contributed. 3.18 ERA, 3.85 FIP in 28 games (15 starts), versatile between rotation and bullpen, becoming a crucial piece the team relied on during extended tournaments. Lauer earned $2.2 million prorated — significantly less than his previous arbitrated salary in Milwaukee, but in exchange for a chance at survival.
This is where the arbitration becomes sensitive.
Precedentally, players who leave an arbitration cycle and then return rarely see their salaries go backward. If the independent panel chooses the Blue Jays, Lauer would become the first player to receive a salary lower than his last arbitrated salary — $675,000 less than in 2023. It’s not a huge number, but it carries symbolic weight.
That’s why the other 29 teams are watching closely. The front office is looking to gauge the strategic risk of the “file-and-trial” system. The players’ association is looking to protect precedent. And players looking to return to MLB are watching to see if their efforts will be fairly compensated.
On the Blue Jays’ side, their argument isn’t without merit. Lauer’s 2023 season was a disaster, and his path back is through a less competitive environment. But conversely, the 2025 results are MLB reality, and the value Lauer brings lies not just in ERA but in versatility—something Toronto greatly values.
Regardless of the ruling, Lauer will enter his final year in control with the Blue Jays and become a free agent after the 2026 season. This spring, he will compete for the No. 5 starter spot with Cody Ponce and José Berríos, and will also be a candidate for the multi-inning reliever role—a role that could reshape his market value.
But first, everyone is waiting for a decision. No fuss. No public controversy. Just a ruling that could… slightly alter the history of arbitration.
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