The Toronto Blue Jays entered the 2026 season with a familiar paradox: they had a good bullpen — but still lacked confidence in their ninth inning.
As the offseason began, Toronto made it clear they wanted to add a high-leverage reliever to compete for the closer role. But ultimately, the only name brought in was Tyler Rogers — a reliable setup man, not someone designed to close out games. That almost implicitly meant Jeff Hoffman would continue in the closer role.
At least nominally.
Because, according to Aidan Sinclair’s (BlueJaysNation) analysis, the real decision may have quietly changed. And the name being pushed up the front line isn’t an outsider — it’s Louis Varland.
Hoffman isn’t a bad closer. But the past season exposed some hard-to-ignore limitations. 15 home runs missed — more than the combined total of the previous three seasons. Seven blown saves, among the highest in MLB. And even though he was shooting very well until Game 7 of the World Series, that moment remains a hard memory to forget.
The issue wasn’t just the result. It was the tools.
According to Sinclair, Hoffman simply didn’t possess the elite skill set necessary to be a full-time closer for years. Meanwhile, Varland had what the Toronto bullpen had lacked for too long: speed and pure dominance.
Varland’s fastball could reach 100 mph. Offspeed exceeded 90 mph. Not only was he fast, but he also “cheated” visually. He ranked in the top 92nd percentile for extension and 86th percentile for chase rate — making the ball look even faster than it actually was when it reached the plate.
More importantly, Varland showed his mettle in the postseason. Not perfect, but enough to show he didn’t shrink in big moments. Those high-pressure innings are often the biggest barrier between a good reliever and a true closer.
In the regular season, Varland finished with an ERA of 2.97 across 74 games. Postseason, he had an ERA of 3.94 in 15 appearances. Not a “star-stamped” number, but a foundation for a bigger role.
What makes Varland even more attractive is his long-term control of the team. Toronto has the option to use him for another five seasons. This opens up the possibility of a stable closer position – something the Blue Jays have been struggling to find for years.
Meanwhile, Ross Atkins has never committed Hoffman to a long-term closer. He even emphasizes flexibility and team spirit – a soft way of speaking, but leaving all scenarios open.
The reality is: Hoffman may still be a safe bet. But safety isn’t always what Toronto needs. The team has experienced firsthand how a home run in inning 9 can change history.
Varland brings risk. But he also offers a ceiling of potential.
The Blue Jays didn’t announce any changes. No big fanfare. But as spring training approaches, quiet decisions in the bullpen often speak louder than words.
And if Varland steps out of the mound in inning 9 of a big game in 2026, it probably won’t be a surprise—it will be the result of a long, quiet preparation.
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