The Baltimore Orioles are no strangers to making controversial prospect decisions. Sometimes, they act at the right time — Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson being prime examples. But more often, hesitation or haste has left a bitter taste. And if an Orioles insider is right, Kade Strowd could be the next name caught in that whirlwind.
Strowd was a pleasant surprise in 2025. Despite only appearing in 25 games, his performances were convincing enough for many to believe he deserved a larger role in the 2026 bullpen, even in high-pressure innings. His ERA of 1.71 and FIP of 2.05 weren’t just luck, but the result of limiting hard contact, effectively avoiding barrels, and maintaining good whiff/chase stats.
However, according to Roch Kubatko’s analysis, Strowd isn’t a guaranteed spot for Opening Day. And the reason isn’t performance.
The familiar spring training dilemma resurfaces: options. The Orioles aren’t just picking the best for Opening Day; they’re optimizing their depth for the entire season. This often means keeping less capable players, simply because they no longer have options in the minors.
In this case, Strowd is directly competing with Rico Garcia for the same position. Garcia had some good moments in 2025, but overall, Strowd is superior. The problem is Garcia no longer has minor league options, while Strowd still has two. And in the current roster logic, sending Strowd down is the only way to keep both—unless there’s an injury or other unforeseen event.
This is where the story gets tricky. Because if the decision were made purely on ability, Strowd would almost certainly be the obvious choice. His enhanced stats are even better than the ERA chart: limited hard-hitting, elite barrel avoidance, reasonable chase/whiff control. The only downside is his walk rate needs tightening—an issue that can be addressed with more time and confidence.
But MLB doesn’t operate by “should,” but by “can.” And Strowd’s options make him the ideal victim of the paperwork.
This brings back unpleasant memories of how the Orioles have handled some young talent: keeping them in minors not because they weren’t ready, but because the roster needed flexibility. Sometimes, that decision was organizationally sound. Sometimes, it slowed development and sent a hard-to-swallow message: playing well isn’t enough.
If Strowd is moved down to make way for Garcia, the Orioles will have more depth on paper — but they will also be taking the risk that one of their most effective arms isn’t where he should be when the season begins.
And the question hanging in the air is: Are the Orioles learning from the past, or are they about to repeat it once again?
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