The filing period for the March 3 primaries has been relatively calm, but a storm is on the horizon.
U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crocket is considering running for the Senate seat held by Republican John Cornyn. Her entry into the Democratic primary would reshape that race and reverberate down the ballot. It would put in motion not only an explosive primary season, but one of the most compelling general election campaigns in recent history.
State Rep. James Talarico of Austin and former U.S. Rep. Colin Allred of Dallas are locked in the Democratic Senate nomination fight. They are bracing for Crockett’s thunder.
“You don’t have to be a Jasmine Crockett booster to acknowledge that the temperature in the room changes when she shows up,” said Michael Sorrell, president of Paul Quinn University and a former political consultant. “We have not had a Democratic, top-tier primary full of multiple extraordinary candidates since I can remember.”
Allred has been in the race since July, while Talarico joined in September. Neither are as popular with Democrats as Crockett, polls show.
“Our polling suggests that if she gets into the Democratic race, she would be the prohibitive favorite,” said Mark Jones, a political scientist and pollster at Rice University.
A University of Houston-Texas Southern University survey had Crockett leading a field of current and potential Democratic Senate candidates with 31% support. Talarico and former U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke of El Paso had 25%, while Allred scored 13% support. The poll of announced candidates found Allred leading Talarico 46% to 42%.
Boosted by a national profile, Crockett has become a prolific fundraiser. She has more than $4.6 million in her congressional campaign account.
If Crockett does run for Senate, that would create an open contest for the Dallas-area congressional seat she holds.
Part of Crockett’s decision to possibly run for Senate involved striking a blow to Republicans who orchestrated a mid-decade congressional redistricting plan designed to net the GOP up to five Texas seats in Congress. A federal panel blocked implementation of the map because it was racially gerrymandered.
But on Friday, The U.S. Supreme Court blocked that ruling, allowing the map to stay in effect — for now.
“I thought it would only be karma if I snatched their Senate seat,” Crockett told reporters after the Nov. 18 ruling.
“Anybody that knows anything about me knows that I’m a praying woman and I tell people all the time that God has to yell at me,” Crockett said. “Now I feel like he may be screaming for me to stay in my seat, I don’t know.”
Crockett, however, will still ponder whether she could prevail in a Senate contest.
“Polling continues to have me at the top of the field for the Senate race, even though I’m not in it,” Crockett told The Dallas Morning News. “I obviously feel like I am qualified to serve in the Senate … also, just the moment that we’re in and the type of fight and pushback that’s needed against this administration, I definitely am uniquely suited in that way.”
Will Crockett run for Senate?
Over the summer, some observers doubted Crockett, in her second congressional term, would mount a Senate campaign.
But as the calendar draws closer to the Dec. 8 deadline, Crockett has stepped up her deliberations and made it clear running for Senate was a strong possibility.
She told The News she’s conducting polling to determine whether she has a path to victory. The polling, she said, will examine whether she has the ability to put together a coalition that brings enough voters to the polls for her to win. A Democrat hasn’t won a Texas statewide contest since 1994.
“If I were to enter that race, it would not be just because I felt confident about my ability to win the primary,” Crockett said. “It would be because I could lay out how it is that I believe I could actually win the general [election].”
Crockett could be motivated by her history-making potential. A Black woman has never won a Texas statewide office. She would be the first person of color from Texas to serve in the Senate.
“For Crockett, if you have the chance to essentially put yourself in the history books with that kind of victory, that may be more appealing than being a U.S. House member for as long as she wants to be,” said Jones, the political scientist.
Crockett has told several media outlets she’ll consider her options over the Thanksgiving holiday and file a 2026 primary candidacy before time expires on Dec. 8.
“I can tell you for sure that I have not made a decision,” Crocket told CNN in November. “I will also tell you that we have a poll that is currently in the field… I am waiting on those results. It’s the first and only poll that I’ve put out to be able to kind of understand where I really am. I don’t want to rely just solely on third-party polls.”
Republicans are successful in Texas because they have more voters in the general election electorate than Democrats. Political analysts estimate the structural advantage for Republicans in the Texas electorate ranges from 750,000 voters to well over 1 million, depending on the election and the candidates.
In the past, Democrats have tried to win in Texas by maximizing Democratic voters and coaxing new and infrequent voters to the polls. And some Democrats have tried to appeal to independent and moderate Republicans, but typically without success.
One theory suggests that in order to win, Democrats need a charismatic candidate that can bring voters to the polls. Crockett believes she has that ability, but will that be enough in Texas?
“I’m polling to determine whether or not I can expand the electorate,” Crockett told CNN. “I believe that I can, but if I can’t, I can tell you for sure, 100% that I will not run.”
With the resistance to President Donald Trump creating enthusiasm among Democrats, the timing could be right for Crockett.
“One of the advantages Crockett has is that there is a desire in the Democratic primary electorate to see somebody who’s fighting hard against Donald Trump and doing everything there is possible to push back,” Jones said.
Many Democrats see her as a fighter for the times, even as she infuriates her Republican rivals, particularly in Trump’s MAGA movement. While she could bring more Democrats to the polls, Crockett could also provide a reason for conservatives to get off the couch.
Crockett’s popularity on the left is fueled by her no-holds-barred criticism of political opponents that has led to viral clips and impassioned media appearances.
She was criticized in March for referring to Texas Gov. Greg Abbott as “governor hot wheels” during a California dinner speech.
Abbott has used a wheelchair since he was partially paralyzed as a young man in 1984 when a tree fell on him.
“There are a lot of things about Jasmine Crockett that Republicans could use against her,” Jones said.
Part of the difficulty with any Democrat running for a Texas statewide office is predicting success when the data points to defeat. It would be hard for Crockett or any Democrat to find data that conclusively points to victory. The goal, analysts say, is to create a game plan that — at the least — makes winning possible, if improbable.
Democrats, Crockett included, are calculating that Attorney General Ken Paxton will beat Cornyn and U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt of Houston for the GOP Senate nomination. Though popular with conservative activists and GOP primary voters, some Republicans fear Paxton’s controversies, which include overcoming a 2023 impeachment, make him a general election risk.
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“I think she would have good reason to be fairly confident that were she to enter a Democratic primary, she would be the odds-on favorite to win,” Jones said of Crockett. “For her, the decision really hinges much more on if she has a realistic pathway to victory in November of 2026, and that hinges on whether or not Ken Paxton is the nominee or not.”
Crockett agrees with Jones.
“Do I think that we are in a better position to win the general for this particular Senate race? Possibly,” Crockett said. “I think that possibility only really exists if Ken Paxton becomes the nominee. I think that if anybody else becomes the Republican nominee, then it becomes a bit difficult for any Democratic nominee to make it over the hump.”
A return to Congress
As she deliberates on running for Senate, Crockett is also considering campaigning for reelection to Congress.
She’s heavily favored to win reelection in District 30.
Running in the district she’s represented since 2023 hasn’t been an obvious choice.
The congressional map approved by the Legislature in August reshaped the North Texas districts held by Democrats. Crockett’s District 30 was packed with mostly Black voters and remains a Democratic stronghold.
The plan, however, places her home in District 33, which is now represented by Rep. Marc Veasey, D-Fort Worth. The new District 33 does not include Veasey’s Tarrant County base and is now anchored in Dallas County. Crockett could opt to run in District 33, which is expected to be won by a Democrat.
District 32, represented by Farmers Branch Democrat Julie Johnson, now stretches into East Texas and is more favorable for a Republican candidate. District 33 is also an option for Johnson. Neither Crockett, Johnson nor Veasey lived in their districts under the new map.
Crockett’s constituents want her back in Congress, she said.
“They have called,” Crockett said. “They all want me to still represent them.”
As for a Senate bid, Crockett said she won’t let a history of futility for Democrats prevent her from trying to make history.
“We know that the miracles happen when Trump is in office and it’s time for the midterms,” Crockett said, adding that it would be a mistake not to take advantage of the president’s weaknesses.
“That’s when people wake up and realize, oh God, we made a mistake,” Crockett said of missed opportunities.
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