There’s a famous Moneyball moment reminding everyone that first base looks simple until someone actually has to play it every day.
Sep 3, 2025; St. Louis, Missouri, USA; St. Louis Cardinals first baseman Willson Contreras (40) hits a two run triple against the Athletics during the eighth inning at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-Imagn Images | Jeff Curry-Imagn Images
This offseason, the Mets treated first base as a theory rather than a responsibility requiring proven experience and reliability.
Experimentation itself is not the problem, nor is believing athletic players can adapt to new positions.
The issue is choosing uncertainty when certainty was available and affordable within the same competitive window.
The Mets had access to a proven solution, yet opted for projection instead of evidence.
Jorge Polanco has played exactly one career inning at first base, making this transition a genuine leap of faith.
If the experiment falters, the regret will sting because the risk was never forced.
Willson Contreras represents the road not taken, and the contrast is difficult to ignore.
Unlike theoretical conversions, Contreras already completed the move successfully at the major league level.
Last season, St. Louis trusted him at first base for 119 starts, and the results held defensively.
Positive Outs Above Average and respectable defensive metrics confirmed the transition was more than survivable.
Offensively, Contreras offered exactly what the Mets needed during a period of lineup transition.
His consistent on-base skills and production with runners in scoring position provided rare stability.
That kind of reliability matters most when replacing a homegrown cornerstone.
None of this guarantees Polanco will struggle, but guarantees were never the argument.
The Mets didn’t need to test a hypothesis at first base this season.
They could have chosen proof instead.
That choice may define the regret they didn’t need to carry.
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