The pressure didn’t arrive loudly.
It didn’t come with bold headlines or dramatic ultimatums. It crept in quietly, settling over the Padres’ rotation the moment the offseason took shape—and it all seems to funnel toward one name.
Joe Musgrove.
San Diego’s 2025 season ended in frustration, controversy, and unanswered questions. A disputed call in the Wild Card round against the Cubs closed the book abruptly, and what followed only deepened the unease.
Dylan Cease was gone. Yu Darvish won’t pitch in 2026. The rotation that once felt deep now feels thin, conditional, and dependent on health more than dominance.
That’s where Musgrove re-enters the picture.
The right-hander didn’t throw a single pitch in 2025. Tommy John surgery in October of 2024 erased an entire season, turning what should have been a stabilizing presence into an absence that quietly reshaped expectations. Rehab replaced routine. Patience replaced planning.
Now, patience is running out.
Musgrove returns at 33 years old not just as another arm—but as a swing factor. One of the few pitchers on the roster with the résumé, experience, and contract that suggests frontline responsibility. And that responsibility lands heavier when the margins are this thin.
Since signing a five-year, $100 million extension in August of 2022, Musgrove has made just 36 starts across three seasons.
When he’s on the mound, the results have largely been there—a 3.20 ERA in a Padres uniform doesn’t disappear. But availability matters. And availability has been the unresolved part of his story.
That’s what makes 2026 uncomfortable.
This isn’t simply about whether Musgrove can pitch well. It’s about whether he can pitch at all—consistently, reliably, without interruption.
After a year away from competition, there’s no easing back into relevance. The Padres don’t have the luxury of slow ramps or cautious expectations.
Every start will carry subtext.
Each outing won’t just be evaluated on velocity or command, but on durability. How does he recover? How does he respond to workload? How quickly does fatigue show?
These aren’t questions fans usually want attached to their presumed ace—but they’re unavoidable now.
The front office tried to soften the blow elsewhere. Michael King was retained. Depth was added around the edges.
But none of it replaces the role Musgrove is expected to fill. Without Darvish, without Cease, the rotation’s ceiling feels capped unless Musgrove reclaims his.
And that’s where the silence grows loud.
There’s no public ultimatum. No declaration that this is make-or-break. But everyone understands the math.
A healthy, effective Musgrove stabilizes the staff and keeps the Padres competitive. Anything less forces the season into improvisation mode before summer even arrives.
For Musgrove, the stakes are personal as much as professional. He’s no longer proving upside. He’s defending reliability. After years defined by stops and starts, this season will shape how the back half of his contract—and his Padres legacy—are viewed.
Comeback narratives are easy to romanticize. The reality is harsher. There’s no guarantee the arm responds. No certainty the body cooperates. No assurance that what worked before still does after surgery and time away.
And yet, that’s where San Diego finds itself.
Waiting. Watching. Hoping.
Because in a season already short on margin for error, the Padres’ future may hinge on something deceptively simple: whether Joe Musgrove can stay on the mound.
Not for a moment.
Not for a flash.
But long enough to carry what’s quietly been placed on his shoulders.
Leave a Reply