Daulton Varsho has just been ranked among the top 10 center fielders in the MLB Network. That number, on paper, is recognition. But in reality, it’s more of a question than an affirmation — especially as Varsho enters the most important season of his career under contract.
At 29, Varsho is no longer a player judged by potential. He’s a well-established product. And interestingly: the most solid part of his record isn’t offensive.
In the last four seasons, Varsho has led the entire MLB with 50 Outs Above Average in the outfield. Not just center fielders — but all outfielders. Even in the 2025 season, when his OPS+ was only 96 (below the league average), he still generated 5.0 bWAR. That speaks volumes: defense alone is enough to keep Varsho in the top 10.
But the top 10 isn’t where Varsho wants to stop. And that’s where the bat comes into center.
Varsho’s 2025 season, on a per-game basis, is the best offensive season of his career. 20 home runs in 71 games — a pace that makes people reconsider his playing style. A .548 SLG, over 150 points higher than his career average. If it lasted over 162 games, that number would be unrealistic. But even if he only maintained 70% of that pace, Varsho would still be a player capable of changing the balance of a game.
Importantly: the baseline statistics don’t entirely suggest it’s random. Baseball Savant shows Varsho’s barrel rate and expected slugging have both increased significantly. Under new hitting coach David Popkins, there are signs that Varsho isn’t just “lucky” in those 71 games.
Of course, history isn’t entirely on his side. In his first two seasons in Toronto, Varsho shot .217 with an OPS+ of 90. His swing-and-miss approach is still there. And his 2025 postseason, frankly, was very inconsistent. All of that makes the 2026 season an unavoidable test.
Compared to the highest benchmark—Julio Rodríguez—Varsho is still in a different world. Julio just had a season with 32 home runs, an OPS+ of 133, a 6.8 WAR, and elite defense. No one expects Varsho to replicate that. But the question isn’t whether Varsho can match Julio.
The question is: can Varsho prove that he belongs in the group just behind him?
A season with 30+ home runs, an OPS of 105–115, consistently top-tier defense, and a total WAR above 5.0 — across his contract year — would not only propel Varsho into the top 5 center fielders, it would make him one of the most attractive names on the free market.
The problem is Varsho’s swing is wide. He could be a top-tier player, or just an excellent defensive player with an average bat. And the next 162 games will determine how history looks back on this “top 10” ranking: as a stepping stone — or a glass ceiling.
Varsho already has the respect of the professionals. Now it’s time for him to decide where he wants to stand in the MLB ecosystem — ranked, or feared.
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