A few years ago, the idea would have sounded absurd. Now, according to betting markets, it’s the most likely outcome.
Seattle Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold enters Super Bowl LX as the favorite to win Super Bowl MVP, listed at +120 odds—shorter than any other player expected to take the field Sunday night.
On paper, it’s a logical projection. The quarterback of the winning team has claimed the Pete Rozelle Trophy in 34 of the previous 59 Super Bowls, and Seattle is favored.
But context is what makes this moment unsettlingly fascinating.
Darnold’s career arc has been anything but linear.
Once drafted third overall and quickly labeled a disappointment with the New York Jets, he was later benched in Carolina, relegated to backup duties in San Francisco, and quietly passed over by Minnesota.
When Seattle signed him last offseason, it barely registered as a headline.
Now, Vegas is effectively betting that he will be the defining player of the biggest game of the year.
That shift hasn’t been loud. It hasn’t been flashy. And that may be the most dangerous part.
Throughout the 2025 season and playoff run, Darnold hasn’t been sold as a savior. He’s been sold as steady. Functional. Reliable.
And as Seattle stacked wins—nine straight entering the Super Bowl—that quiet consistency began to compound. The Seahawks didn’t need him to be spectacular. They needed him to be correct.
Oddsmakers noticed.
Behind Darnold on the MVP odds board sits Patriots quarterback Drake Maye at +235, a number that reflects both respect and uncertainty.
Maye has been electric, productive, and fearless throughout his breakout season—but he also enters the Super Bowl with lingering injury concerns and a matchup against one of the league’s most disciplined defenses.
Then come the skill-position threats. Seattle wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba (+550) and running back Kenneth Walker III (+550) share identical odds, signaling that bookmakers believe Seattle’s offense could tilt away from the quarterback if game flow demands it.
On the Patriots’ side, Rhamondre Stevenson (+2800) is a long shot—useful, but unlikely to dominate narrative.
And that word—narrative—is where Darnold’s case quietly strengthens.
Super Bowl MVP voting isn’t just statistical. It’s contextual. It rewards moments, not just totals.
And Darnold’s presence in this game already carries a storyline voters don’t need help remembering: the quarterback no one believed in, now one win away from football immortality.
That doesn’t mean the outcome is settled.
Seattle’s offense has multiple paths to victory. A defensive struggle could minimize quarterback impact. A breakout performance by Smith-Njigba could steal the spotlight.
A heroic Maye performance could flip the script entirely.
But the odds reflect something deeper than math.
They reflect belief—measured, unemotional belief—that if the Seahawks win, Sam Darnold will likely be the face of it.
That reality forces an uncomfortable question for the rest of the league. Was Darnold ever broken? Or was he simply early, misplaced, and misunderstood?
Sunday night won’t answer every question. But it might answer the biggest one.
And if Darnold lifts the Pete Rozelle Trophy under the lights in Santa Clara, it won’t just be a Super Bowl MVP moment—it will be the quiet conclusion of one of the NFL’s most unlikely reversals.
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