Inside the Athletics clubhouse, the atmosphere is a far cry from what last year’s standings suggested. After the 76–86 season, the A’s aren’t talking about “development” or “rebuilding.” They’re talking about the postseason. And that belief isn’t just empty rhetoric.
Nick Kurtz and Jacob Wilson have completely changed the perception of Oakland’s offense. A Rookie of the Year, a runner-up — and more importantly, the feeling that the A’s possess an offense capable of putting pressure on any pitching staff. On paper, it’s one of the youngest, deepest, and most dangerous offenses in the league.
The problem — and the source of controversy throughout the offseason — lies in pitching.
The Athletics have done almost nothing to alleviate that concern. Their only MLB signing is Mark Leiter Jr., a veteran reliever with interesting underlying metrics but a 4.84 ERA last season with the Yankees. No ace. No big starter. The only belief is that… the youth will solve the problem themselves.
This is what makes the A’s most unpredictable.
Long-time fans will remember 2012 — when a group of young pitchers defied all expectations and led the A’s to the AL West title on the final day. No one said that scenario would repeat itself. But it stands as a reminder: this team once survived thanks to things no one dared believe before.
FanGraphs isn’t swayed by emotion. And their models give the A’s an overall playoff chance of 23.3% — fourth in the AL West. Not high, but not a hopeless number either. Rangers (32.4%) are closest above, while Mariners (77.9%) and Astros (39.7%) form the upper tier of the standings.
In the entire American League, the A’s remain in the lower tier. But they’re ahead of the Angels, White Sox, Guardians, and Rays — and that says Oakland has moved away from the bottom. The gap between them and the Wild Card contenders isn’t that big anymore.
Looking deeper, the A’s have an 8.9% chance of winning the AL West. That number sounds small, but compared to the previous four seasons, it’s almost… generous. The Mariners are still the top contender, the Astros and Rangers are behind, but with a good winning streak, Oakland could climb into direct competition.
FanGraphs also gives the A’s a 14.4% chance of winning the Wild Card — equal to or slightly better than many AL Central teams. The Tigers, Royals, and Twins are all in that same “blind spot.” And this is important: the AL Central is open, while the AL East has become a fierce battleground where every team has higher odds than the A’s.
In other words, Oakland’s path isn’t blocked — but it’s narrow, and full of risk.
The 2026 season therefore looks like a dynamic year. If the youth pitching holds up, the front office can remain static. If not, the A’s will almost certainly act during the season — something they haven’t done effectively in previous lockout years.
Six years without a playoff is a long pause. And this time, Oakland is on the brink of returning to October — or realizing they’ve put their faith in it too early.
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