For years, Athletics was known for a familiar pattern: developing young talent, maximizing their value, and then parting ways before the real bill arrived. But recent events suggest A’s has quietly rewritten its long-term blueprint. Tyler Soderstrom was retained. Jacob Wilson was secured with an iconic contract. And if that philosophy continues, Nick Kurtz is the biggest—and most important—test.
This isn’t a deal awaiting arbitration. Nor is it an auction when the player is already on the free market. This is a pre-arbitration extension—where trust, timing, and contract structure are far more important than pure market value.
And Kurtz isn’t a name to be experimented with half-heartedly.
From early on, he displayed a skill set that made evaluators wary: plate discipline beyond his years, natural left-handed strength, and a rare, mature at-bat approach. Such players don’t usually “burn out prematurely.” They age well, becoming mainstays of the lineup for many years. The term “generational” in baseball isn’t easy to use—but with Kurtz, it’s emerging not because of hype, but because of data and professional intuition.
A’s problem is therefore clear:
how to pay for a talent that can become generational without breaking financial discipline?
And here’s the most interesting part: hometown discount.
Kurtz has every reason to accept it. He’s presented with the opportunity to become the face of the franchise. He understands the value of early financial stability in a sport where a single injury can change everything. That readiness gives A’s a rare advantage: daring to go beyond the safe zone, but without yet touching extreme risk.
Pre-arbitration is where the math changes. A’s is in control. In return, they can offer what young stars truly want: guaranteed money and long-term commitment. Not just buying out the arbitration years, but buying out the near future as well.
A bold but reasonable contract framework might be:
9 years, $115–125 million guaranteed, with a maximum value of $160–175+ million through incentives.
This structure accomplishes multiple things simultaneously:
– Purchase the entire pre-arb + arbitration package
– Lock in an additional 4–5 years of free agency coverage
– Keep AAV at a manageable level
– Reward appropriately if Kurtz truly reaches elite status
Sample allocation shows wisdom:
– Years 1–3: $2–3 million
– Years 4–6: $7–12 million
– Years 7–9: $18–22 million
– Option in year 10: $25 million+
AVA of approximately $12 million – perfectly fitting the A’s model, but large enough to send a clear message: we believe you are at the center of this era.
Incentives are where the two sides meet. Plate appearances, All-Star, Silver Slugger, top-10 MVP, postseason… If Kurtz becomes an annual All-Star, his earnings will automatically approach $20 million per year at his peak — still lower than the open market, but reflecting the true impact.
And that’s the key.
If A’s are truly serious about building to keep, this isn’t just a contract. This is a strategic statement. A gamble that defines a new era.
Nick Kurtz isn’t a risk.
He’s a gamble worth taking.
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