Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth faces growing scrutiny over his handling of recent strikes on alleged narcotics-smuggling vessels in the Caribbean. But betting odds show mixed predictions about whether he will be ousted amid the backlash.
Why It Matters
Hegseth has been fielding questions after a report from The Washington Post about a strike against an alleged smuggling boat earlier this year. After an initial strike left survivors, a follow-up attack was ordered, in which they were killed. Critics have raised concerns about the legality of the second strike, but Hegseth has maintained it was legal. He also faced renewed criticism after the release of an inspector general report concluded that he risked endangering American troops when he shared sensitive information on the messaging app Signal earlier this year. These controversies have fueled calls for his firing, though there is little indication he will soon leave his position.
What To Know
Hegseth faced scrutiny on multiple fronts this week as members of Congress raised questions about the strikes and the release of the inspector general report. Some betting odds markets suggest he could be replaced or leave his position in the coming months.
The BetOnline market predicts he will no longer be defense secretary by 2027.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is pictured in the White House in Washington, D.C., on March 21. | Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images
“BetOnline.ag has updated ‘exit date’ odds for certain political figures, and Hegseth is now favored to be removed from his position prior to 2027,” reads a press release sent to Newsweek.
The market showed odds that he would leave his position before January 1, 2027, at -180, and odds that he would stay in his position at +140. In American betting odds, a minus sign indicates a favorite, while a positive sign denotes an underdog.
Polymarket odds showed he is likely to stay in his position until at least March 31, 2026. In that market, there was only a 26 percent chance that he would leave his position before then.
Kalshi betting odds gave Hegseth a 32 percent chance of being the first Cabinet member to leave their position. U.S. Attorney General Pam Bondi followed at 13 percent.
The controversy over the boat strike stems from the report that there were survivors of the first strike who were unable to fight. Critics have questioned if the second strike violated the laws of war.
In March, Atlantic Editor-in-Chief Jeffrey Goldberg said he was included in a group chat on the Signal app, in which high-ranking officials discussed military plans. The incident has drawn scrutiny toward Hegseth. An inspector general report was released in full on Thursday.
What People Are Saying
Hegseth, in defending the strikes: “These highly effective strikes are specifically intended to be ‘lethal, kinetic strikes.’…Every trafficker we kill is affiliated with a Designated Terrorist Organization.”
Representative Pat Ryan, a New York Democrat, on X: “Hegseth jeopardized the mission. He put US pilots’ lives at risk. Then blatantly lied and covered it up. FIRE HEGSETH.”
Senator Thom Tillis, a North Carolina Republican, to CNN on Wednesday: “If somebody knowingly launched a second missile at that second boat that led to the deaths of the other two, then they have to be held accountable. And they shouldn’t be in whatever role they’re in.”
What Happens Next
Hegseth continues to face criticism from Democrats and some Republicans but has not signaled any intention to step down.
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