As the Milwaukee Brewers continue to struggle to reach a salary agreement with William Contreras for the 2026 season, an increasingly clear scenario is emerging: an arbitration battle is almost inevitable.
In fact, this doesn’t really surprise anyone. As early as the beginning of January, MLB insider Mark Feinsand suggested that the two sides would likely face arbitration. Three weeks later, with the Brewers having signed all their eligible players except Contreras, that prediction is becoming a reality.
What makes the situation more tense than last year is the numbers.
Contreras and his representatives submitted a salary offer of $9.9 million, while the Brewers responded with $8.55 million. The $1.35 million gap isn’t huge in modern MLB—but in the world of arbitration, it’s large enough to jeopardize any possibility of a “meeting in the middle.”
And the crucial point is: the arbitrators can’t choose a middle ground. They’re forced to choose one of two numbers. Either $9.9 million or $8.55 million. There’s no safe buffer zone.
That turned the hearing into an extremely cold debate. The Brewers had to prove Contreras wasn’t worth $9.9 million. Contreras only needed to prove he was worth more than $9.225 million — the middle ground — even if it was just… a dollar.
In terms of precedent, the Brewers were trying to peg Contreras’s salary to the Dodgers’ Will Smith, who received $8.55 million in his second year of arbitration in 2024 — the highest ever awarded to a catcher at that stage. Milwaukee argued they were prepared to pay the historic cap.
But the problem is: Contreras isn’t Will Smith.
Over his first six MLB seasons, Contreras surpassed Smith in a number of statistics that arbitration favors: hits (602 vs. 554), doubles (122 vs. 104), batting average (.273 vs. .258), OBP (.357 vs. .350), stolen bases (23 vs. 10), highest RBI in a season (92 vs. 87), and highest WAR in a season (4.9 vs. 4.5).
Breasters will undoubtedly argue that Contreras has more “counting stats” because he played more games — but arbitration history shows that referees love counting stats, regardless of context.
And that’s not all.
Contreras also had two All-Star appearances, two Silver Sluggers, and MVP votes in two seasons, including a fifth-place finish in 2024. In the same career period, Will Smith only had two All-Star appearances and fewer individual accomplishments. It’s true that the Brewers could argue that titles depend on the league environment and seasonal competition. But arbitration doesn’t operate like a sabermetric analysis room. It operates on precedent, titles, and things that are easy to present on paper.
And that’s where Contreras has the advantage.
Ironically, the Brewers could still be considered the “favorites”—not because they’re right, but because Contreras submitted a very high figure. If the player’s side had only asked for slightly more than Will Smith, the chances of winning would have been greater. But $9.9 million forces them to convince the arbitrator that Contreras has entered a whole new level of value.
However, given his current track record, it’s not far-fetched for Contreras to walk out of the hearing room with a $9.9 million salary.
And if that happens, the Brewers won’t just lose one arbitration. They would be sending an unwanted message — that even if they were willing to pay the “highest price in history,” they could still be surpassed by what William Contreras did on the field.
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