It only took 117 games for everything to turn around.
A year ago, Nick Kurtz was the highly anticipated rookie for the Oakland Athletics. Today, Buster Olney ranks him higher than both Freddie Freeman and Bryce Harper in ESPN’s 2026 first baseman rankings.
On the surface, it’s just a preseason ranking. But deeper down, it’s more like a generational shift—and perhaps a premature one.
Kurtz is ranked 3rd overall in MLB at 1B, behind only Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Matt Olson. Above Freeman—a consistent icon for over a decade. Above Harper—the face of the league.
The issue isn’t whether Kurtz is good or not.
It’s the speed at which he rose to prominence.
Kurtz’s 2025 season was truly explosive: .290/.383/.619, 36 home runs, 1.009 OPS, 173 OPS+, 5.4 bWAR in just 117 games. He won Rookie of the Year and Silver Slugger AL. At age 22.
Those numbers aren’t just good — they’re groundbreaking.
But MLB has never been an easy place to repeat miracles. History is full of rookies who explode onto the scene only to stagnate once the league gets a handle on them. Pitchers have the winter to dissect every weakness. Teams have systems in place to find even the smallest vulnerabilities.
And this was only Kurtz’s second season.
Meanwhile, Freeman and Harper are more than just names. They represent mini-eras within their respective teams. They’ve survived slumps, injuries, playoff pressures, and years of media scrutiny.
Ranking Kurtz above them isn’t simply a professional assessment. It sends a signal: MLB is poised for a new icon.
The question is—is Kurtz ready for it?
There’s a noteworthy detail: Kurtz hasn’t played professionally for more than two years. He was drafted in 2024. From a potential prospect to a “top 3 first baseman MLB” in less than 24 months.
That rapid rise has led many to whisper: is this a true superstar talent…or just the hype spiral the league always needs to refresh the narrative?
In reality, if Kurtz repeats 2025 in 2026, he won’t just prove ESPN right. He could be vying for the AL MVP race with Aaron Judge or Bobby Witt Jr.
But what if he slows down? What if his OPS drops by 100 points? What if teams find a way to shut down his left hand?
At that point, this ranking will be seen as a moment of premature celebration.
Perhaps the most important thing isn’t how good Kurtz is. It’s how desperately MLB seems to be craving a fresh face. When a 22-year-old is placed above two still-on-the-peak champions, it’s not just a matter of professional assessment — it’s a message.
A message that the old era is being challenged.
And while Athletics fans are thrilled, the rest of the league is wondering: are we witnessing the birth of a “new king”…
Or just a star crowned too soon?
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