The Las Vegas Raiders are preparing to turn the page—again.
With reports indicating that Klint Kubiak is expected to become the franchise’s next head coach after the Super Bowl, the direction of the Raiders’ rebuild is beginning to crystallize.
New coach. New system. New quarterback.
And for Geno Smith, that reality feels impossible to avoid.
Smith’s first season in Las Vegas never found its footing. Brought in under Pete Carroll’s vision and rewarded with a preemptive extension, Smith struggled almost immediately.
Benched multiple times, unable to stabilize the offense, and ultimately overshadowed by the looming presence of the No. 1 overall pick, his role quietly slipped from solution to complication.
Kubiak’s arrival only accelerates that shift.
Despite working in the same organization, Kubiak has no meaningful history with Smith. He didn’t recruit him. He didn’t develop him.
And with the Raiders widely expected to select Fernando Mendoza—the consensus top quarterback prospect in this year’s draft—Smith suddenly looks like a leftover piece from a previous plan.
For the Raiders, the question isn’t whether to move on. It’s how.
Smith is owed $18.5 million next season, money already committed via bonus. Cutting him does little to help. Trading him, while technically more expensive in pure cap accounting, opens a far more valuable door: flexibility through a rookie quarterback contract and the chance to recover draft capital.
That’s why a trade, not a release, has quietly become the most logical outcome.
Quarterbacks with Smith’s résumé don’t flood the market. He has 98 career starts, over a decade of NFL experience, and a reputation—fair or not—as a player who can still function in the right structure. Even after a disastrous year, that alone gives him value.
The Raiders don’t need to win the trade. They need to clear the board.
Enter the Atlanta Falcons.
With Kirk Cousins likely departing and Michael Penix Jr. still developing, Atlanta finds itself desperate for stability under new head coach Kevin Stefanski. They don’t need a savior. They need competition, insurance, and competence.
Smith checks all three boxes.
There’s also familiarity. Atlanta recently hired Tanner Engstrand as passing game coordinator, and while his history with Smith isn’t extensive, it exists.
Engstrand has been part of quarterback rooms that helped Smith and Sam Darnold revive their careers elsewhere. That matters—especially for a 36-year-old quarterback trying to rewrite his story one more time.
A proposed trade package makes sense for both sides: a sixth-round pick in 2026 and a Day 2 pick in 2027. For the Raiders, it’s found value for a contract they no longer want. For the Falcons, it’s a calculated gamble that doesn’t mortgage the future.
And for Smith, it’s something far more important than money or draft math.
It’s relevance.
Atlanta offers weapons—Bijan Robinson, Drake London, Kyle Pitts—that most quarterbacks would envy. The offense shouldn’t be average.
It’s been held back by inconsistency, turnovers, and uncertainty. Whether Stefanski ultimately builds around Penix Jr. or leans on Smith early, the presence of a veteran who’s seen everything could stabilize a team hovering on the edge of contention.
Smith has been here before. Written off. Traded. Mocked. Then resurrected in Seattle, where he made his former team look foolish for giving up on him too soon.
This time feels different. Older. Riskier. Shorter.
But as the Raiders prepare to reset their franchise with a new coach and a new quarterback, Geno Smith stands as the clearest reminder of a plan that failed—and the first decision that must be made.
The Raiders don’t need closure.
They need clarity.
And moving Geno Smith may be the quiet first step into a future that no longer includes him.
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