Joey Ortiz used to be the kind of player that kept an organization on edge: good grip, mature mindset, and most importantly—his minor league bat was never in trouble. From his professional debut to the 2023 season at Triple-A Norfolk, Ortiz never hit a wRC+ below 98. The peak was in 2023, when he hit .321/.378/.507 (124 wRC+) and was called up by the Orioles at the end of the season. All of this suggested a simple promise: at a minimum, he would be a player who could “hit enough.”
Then the Brewers got him, and 2024 looks exactly as planned.
In 142 official rookie games, Ortiz didn’t average out beautifully, but he was patient, still had good ball control, and although his performance fluctuated, his overall average was .239/.329/.398, equivalent to 102 OPS+ and 105 wRC+. For a defensive rookie, that’s more than decent. Even his WAR was good: 2.7 bWAR and 3.2 fWAR. Everything seemed to be on an upward trajectory.
And then 2025 happened in a way… so inexplicable it’s hard to put into words.
Ortiz had intense spring training, then entered the season feeling completely out of place. After his 2-for-4 opening game, he almost disappeared from the offensive side. From then until August 12th, Ortiz didn’t have a single game where his OPS exceeded .600. Season finish: .230/.276/.317, 66 OPS+ and 67 wRC+ in 506 plate appearances—a decline that wasn’t just a “slump,” but a sustained loss of momentum.
What makes the story even worse is: it’s very rare for a player to perform so poorly and still be awarded over 500 PA. Since 2000, only 58 players have achieved 500 PA with an OPS+ of 66 or less. This means Ortiz didn’t just play poorly—he played poorly in a statistical range that most teams wouldn’t be able to tolerate.
Looking deeper, the shock is even more “silent.” Statcast points out the only thing Ortiz will do well in 2025: he doesn’t whiff much when swinging—whiff% is in the top 10% and his strikeout rate is also very good (86th percentile). But that’s the kind of “meaningless good” if contact doesn’t create damage. People remember the infield pop-ups, the dead balls, the touches that felt like they were just to… finish the inning.
More importantly: the things that were fundamental in 2024—stable walk rate, good chase percentage, usable bat speed—all deteriorated simultaneously. Chase percentage increased, and when contact was made, it was almost worthless. This kind of decline often begins with something difficult to measure numerically: the feel for the ball and the psychological “press” that develops over time.
MLB history doesn’t promise much for this kind of fall. Looking back to the league’s expansion in 1969, very few players have had a season with 500+ PA and OPS+ ≤70 in their first three years of their career and then gone on to have a career OPS+ of 95 or higher. The list of “happy endings” only includes a few names like Jean Segura, Dansby Swanson, Geraldo Perdomo—and all three have their own unique recovery characteristics: either a steady growth curve, or exceptional ball-picking skills, or development that is sometimes… unbelievably random.
The Brewers understand that. And here’s the most worrying part for Ortiz: Milwaukee isn’t short on options. Cooper Pratt and Jett Williams are expected to start at Triple-A Nashville, while Jesús Made is closing in from Double-A Biloxi. Made is only 18 (almost 19), but the mere mention of his name is a signal: Ortiz’s time is no longer “unlimited.”
Ortiz isn’t necessarily threatened immediately. But the Brewers also won’t let their shortstop maintain an OPS below .600 for an entire season again. 2026, therefore, isn’t just a “bounce-back season.” This is the season Ortiz must prove that 2025 is just a minor setback—or a sign that MLB has found a way to lock him down forever.
And the question hanging in the air is: if Ortiz starts slowly again, will the Brewers have enough patience this time… or will they let the future take its place?
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