Top 100 prospect rankings aren’t always controversial. But when Lazaro Montes was left out of ESPN’s list — only to be immediately described as a leading MLB home run contender — the confusion began to spread.
This wasn’t a typical “snub.” It was a self-contradictory message.
When Kiley McDaniel announced ESPN’s Top 100 prospect list, Montes wasn’t included. Meanwhile, MLB Pipeline, Baseball America, and The Athletic all agreed that the 21-year-old Mariners outfielder deserved to be in the league’s top 100 young talents. ESPN didn’t just go against the trend — they did something that made viewers stop and read the fine print.
Because in the “just missed” list, McDaniel didn’t just mention Montes once. He mentioned him… twice.
First, Montes was chosen as the most likely prospect to reach the Top 50 in 2026. Then, he was predicted to be the one who could lead MLB home runs at the peak of his career. These two assessments didn’t come from die-hard Mariners fans. They came from the very person who had excluded Montes from the Top 100.
And that’s where the question arises: is Montes being underestimated, or is he being judged by a completely different logic?
McDaniel doesn’t deny Montes’ greatest strength. In fact, he acknowledges that his power is a “carrying tool.” Montes is 6-foot-5, weighs over 210 pounds, and just hit 32 home runs in a season where half of them took place at Double-A Arkansas — one of the most pitcher-friendly courses in the Minor League. That’s not fake strength.
The problem, according to ESPN, is the “one-sidedness.” Montes hits from a distance. He walks a lot. But his contact isn’t consistent. Speed and defense aren’t his strong points. And at the moment, those limitations are enough to keep him out of the Top 100.
This argument isn’t wrong. But the way it’s juxtaposed with ambitious predictions creates a sense of… disharmony.
If a prospect has the potential to lead MLB in home runs, is he really “outside the Top 100”? Or is this a difference in how evaluators weigh risk against potential?
Comparing him to Spencer Jones of the Yankees complicates things further. Jones hits more home runs than Montes in 2025, but has significantly more strikeouts and a lower walk rate. McDaniel ranks Jones at 177th, while Montes is at 108th — just eight places away from the Top 100. That gap is both small and symbolic.
Montes’ least discussed but most important point might be his ability to control the strike zone. For a tall player, this is rare. And as Keith Law once pointed out, “covering the strike zone” is the hardest skill for hitters with long arms. Montes already has that foundation — and if he improves his contact, the whole story will change very quickly.
That’s why the 2026 season is pivotal. Montes is likely to start at Double-A, then Triple-A. Just one step away from MLB. How he handles his current limitations will determine whether he’s a “boom-or-bust” or a rising star.
Perhaps ESPN is right to be cautious. Perhaps the rest of the analysts are right to believe in power as a decisive tool. But rarely has a prospect been evaluated in two such starkly opposing ways — in the same article.
And it is this contradiction that makes Lazaro Montes a name more discussed than any other ranking position.
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