Mike Elias’s silence at Birdland Caravan was initially seen as a positive sign. No statements, no reassurances, no evasiveness—everything suggested the Orioles were very close to a major trade. A trade important enough that the head of baseball operations didn’t want to “slip up” before the ink on the contract dried.
And then Framber Valdez signed with the Detroit Tigers.
Three years, $115 million. The door closed so quickly that Elias’s silence immediately took on a different meaning. No longer “in progress.” It became a void. And when Elias prepares to meet the press at Spring Training next week, he won’t walk into the press room with the advantage of having just closed the hardest winter deal.
That doesn’t mean Elias is out of options.
The heat will certainly subside somewhat before Tuesday, when the initial emotions have worn off. But the question of Valdez won’t disappear. The question will be raised, pressed, and forced to answer directly: How close were the Orioles, and why did they let it slip away?
The bigger issue is that the standards have changed.
Valdez is not just a starter. He’s a frontline starter, the piece that helped the Orioles be seen as a true World Series contender. With Trevor Rogers and Kyle Bradish at the top of the rotation, Baltimore needs a third pillar—someone who can not only “win innings,” but can also stand firm in the playoffs. Shane Baz could be that person, but currently, the word “could” carries significant risk.
When Valdez left the negotiating table, the market automatically narrowed. Zac Gallen, Lucas Giolito, Justin Verlander, Chris Bassitt—those are the remaining names. They are all quality pitchers, but each comes with a question mark: declining form, age, injury recovery, or a lower-than-expected potential ceiling for Valdez.
And that’s why Elias’s reins are much shorter.
If the Orioles sign a “decent” starter, the reaction won’t be excitement, but comparison. Is this person as good as Valdez? Is he good enough to change the perspective on rotation? Elias doesn’t just need to sign more people — he needs to sign the right person, or at least a choice that justifies the ambition.
Time isn’t on his side either. Pitchers and catchers will report in the next few days. Going into Spring Training without addressing the biggest gap in the roster is the worst-case scenario. Not just for technical reasons, but for the message it sends: Orioles knows the problem, but hasn’t solved it.
In that context, next week’s press conference isn’t just a regular update. It’s more like an “confession.” Elias will have to explain why Valdez didn’t come to Baltimore, and why the replacement — if any — is still sufficient to maintain the franchise’s biggest goal.
If he walks into the boardroom with a new contract, the pressure will ease. Otherwise, whispers about Elias’s job won’t be a temporary reaction. They’ll become long-term questions.
The Orioles are still a good team. But this winter has taught fans one thing: being good isn’t enough. And with Framber Valdez gone to Detroit, Mike Elias has very little chance left to prove that the Orioles haven’t missed the most crucial moment of this competitive cycle.
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