Three straight MVPs. Unanimous. Untouchable.
Now the question isn’t if Shohei Ohtani wins again — it’s who on earth can stop him.
The 2026 National League MVP race isn’t shaping up to be a battle — it’s shaping up to be a chase.
And right now, everyone is chasing one man: Shohei Ohtani.
After securing three consecutive MVP awards — each one by unanimous vote — Ohtani enters the 2026 season with a staggering 46% probability to win yet another, according to prediction markets like Kalshi. That’s not just leading the race — that’s nearly owning half of it outright.
To put that dominance into perspective, the rest of the National League — every superstar, breakout candidate, and dark horse combined — is left to split the remaining 54%.
This isn’t normal. This is historic territory.
The last time baseball witnessed this level of sustained MVP supremacy? You have to go back to Barry Bonds, who captured four straight MVPs from 2001 to 2004 — a stretch many believed would never be replicated.
Then Ohtani arrived… and rewrote the rules.
What makes his case even more overwhelming is that he’s not just dominating in one dimension. After recovering from his second Tommy John surgery, Ohtani returned to the mound last season with a 2.87 ERA across 14 starts — while simultaneously terrorizing pitchers at the plate with a 1.014 OPS and a jaw-dropping 55 home runs.
If he manages a full season as a two-way player in 2026, the gap between him and the field could become almost unfair.
Because while others compete in one lane, Ohtani owns the entire highway.
Add in the fact that the Los Angeles Dodgers are once again projected to be World Series contenders, and the spotlight will rarely leave him. Big moments, national attention, and elite production — it’s the perfect MVP formula.
So who dares to challenge?
The closest threat, at least on paper, is Juan Soto, sitting at 13%. Known for his elite plate discipline and consistent power, Soto could mount a serious case if he delivers another 40+ home run season and leads the New York Mets deep into October contention. But even that might not be enough.
Then comes Ronald Acuña Jr. at 9% — a player who has already proven he can win it all, thanks to his unforgettable 40-70 season in 2023. His challenge isn’t talent; it’s durability. If he stays healthy, he’s one of the few players capable of producing a season so electric that voters can’t ignore him.
Not far behind is Fernando Tatis Jr. at 6% — another superstar whose MVP hopes hinge on consistency and health. When he’s on the field, he’s magnetic. But “when” has been the key issue.
Then there’s the cluster of intriguing long shots, all sitting at 3%: Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, Corbin Carroll, and Elly De La Cruz.
Each brings a unique weapon to the race.
Schwarber is coming off a monstrous 56-home-run campaign. Harper has already proven he can dominate MVP voting when locked in. Carroll and De La Cruz represent the new wave — explosive, dynamic, and capable of jaw-dropping production if everything clicks.
But here’s the harsh reality the market is quietly signaling: for any of them to win, something extraordinary has to happen.
Either someone delivers a historic, once-in-a-decade season…
Or Ohtani slows down.
And right now, there’s little evidence of either.
Yes, there are always wild cards — injuries, voter fatigue, or a breakout performance too spectacular to ignore. But betting against Ohtani in his prime feels less like a strategy and more like a gamble against history itself.
Because this isn’t just about numbers.
It’s about witnessing a generational force at full throttle.
The 2026 MVP race isn’t wide open — it’s locked onto one name, with everyone else hoping for a crack in the armor.
And until someone proves otherwise…
The award doesn’t belong to the league.
It belongs to Ohtani — and someone will have to take it from him.
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