There are bad seasons in the NFL — and then there are seasons that close doors.
For Geno Smith, 2025 was the latter.
What began as a seemingly reasonable change of scenery ended as a full-circle nightmare that left one franchise celebrating a Super Bowl run and another holding the No. 1 pick, while Smith stood uncomfortably in the middle of both outcomes.
Just a year ago, Smith was steady in Seattle. Not spectacular, but dependable. The Seahawks went 10–7 with him, competitive enough to justify continuity.
When Seattle chose to trade him to the Las Vegas Raiders and sign Sam Darnold instead, many questioned the decision.
That question has been answered.
Seattle didn’t just survive the move — it flourished. With Darnold under center, the Seahawks became the NFC’s No. 1 seed and are now headed to the Super Bowl. The trade that once looked risky now reads like foresight.
Las Vegas, on the other hand, unraveled.
The Raiders acquired Smith hoping for competence at quarterback — stability, experience, and a bridge to something better. Instead, they got collapse. Smith went 2–13 as a starter, led the league with 17 interceptions, and presided over the NFL’s worst record.
The result? The No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft — a pick widely expected to be used on Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza.
That reality completes the cycle.
Seattle moved on and reached its ceiling. Las Vegas moved in and hit bottom. And Smith, at 35, suddenly finds himself without a clear future.
The numbers are unforgiving. Smith struggled behind a flawed roster, but the tape offered little refuge. Turnovers mounted. Confidence eroded. By season’s end, the Raiders were no longer asking how to build around him — they were asking how quickly they could replace him.
Although Smith remains under contract, the idea of him sticking around feels increasingly unrealistic. Even if Las Vegas releases him, the market is unlikely to welcome him back as a starter. Teams chasing upside will look younger. Teams seeking bridges will look cheaper.
This wasn’t just a bad year.
It may have been the end of his window.
What makes the outcome harsher is the contrast playing out in real time. Each Seahawks playoff win sharpened the narrative. Every Darnold success magnified what Las Vegas didn’t get. The same move that gave Seattle clarity stripped Smith of leverage.
In hindsight, the Seahawks didn’t merely upgrade at quarterback — they escaped a ceiling they didn’t want to live under.
For the Raiders, Smith became a symbol of a franchise still searching for direction. For Smith himself, the season accelerated a transition that once seemed gradual. From comeback story to journeyman to placeholder — all within months.
There’s no scandal here. No controversy. Just the quiet cruelty of the league.
The NFL doesn’t wait for recovery arcs forever. It replaces them.
As Seattle prepares for the Super Bowl and Las Vegas prepares to draft its next hope, Geno Smith’s name feels oddly absent from both futures. That absence may be the most telling detail of all.
Because when a season ends not with debate, but with silence, it usually means the league has already moved on.
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