In a season where the Toronto Blue Jays quickly lost their way, bright spots often emerged quietly. Tommy Nance was one of them — unexpected, unfavored, and almost unnoticed until the numbers forced a look back.
2024 was a collective failure for the Blue Jays. A terrible start, a trade-off at the deadline, and a 74–88 record. But it was in this context that the team began quietly gathering bullpen pieces for the future. Brendon Little was targeted for high-leverage. Ryan Burr struggled with injuries. And Tommy Nance — a small, almost unknown signing — was brought in without much fanfare.
Nance’s early stint at Toronto was unremarkable. In 22 innings in 2024, he shot an ERA of 4.09, a FIP of 3.98, unremarkable strikeouts, and a high walk rate. As a result, he was outright demoted to the Buffalo Triple-A just before Opening Day, at age 34 — an age when many pitchers begin to see the end of their careers.
But the story didn’t end there.
Nance didn’t explode at Triple-A, but he was solid enough to be called back on July 11th. And from that moment on, things changed inexplicably. In his final 30 appearances of the season, he threw 31.2 innings with an ERA of 1.99 and a FIP of 1.87. His strikeout rate soared to 25.4%, his walk rate dropped to 5.6%. Not flashy. Not high-leverage. But incredibly effective.
Among relievers with 30 or more innings, Nance’s ERA ranked 14th in all of MLB — a list of 244 pitchers. He wasn’t alone in this achievement, as the Blue Jays’ bullpen had many surprising names at the end of the season, such as Eric Lauer, Braydon Fisher, and Tyler Rogers. But the difference lies in their position.
Most of Nance’s innings came in low-leverage periods, “safe” times when the game was either over or already decided. This was both a reason for his success and a reason why the team hesitated to assess his true value.
And then the roster problem arose.
Tommy Nance no longer had option years. This made every decision related to him sensitive. If he didn’t make the Opening Day roster, the Blue Jays would be forced to outright — and would likely lose him through waivers. A pitcher who has thrown ERAs under 2.00 in over 30 innings rarely goes through waivers without someone noticing.
But the problem is: the Blue Jays aren’t short of options. The bullpen is crowded. The high-leverage roles are already filled. Younger, more versatile arms are vying for spots, and option years are still up for grabs.
The forecast for 2026 only makes the picture even more bleak. Steamer points to an ERA of 3.83, OOPSY is slightly more optimistic with 3.65. Not bad—but not enough to guarantee a spot. A “stable” low-leverage reliever at age 34 is rarely a priority in the long-term picture.
And that’s the paradox of Tommy Nance.
He did almost everything right in the second half of the season. He threw better than most MLB bullpen. But he did it in a role the team could—and were willing to—replace.
Spring Training will decide everything. Not by past performance, but by the next few short weeks. For Nance, the line between “useful asset” and “left-behind name” is thinner than ever.
The question is: do the Blue Jays have room for a proven pitcher — or will low-leverage remain a ceiling that Tommy Nance can never overcome?
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