The Klint Kubiak era in Las Vegas hasn’t officially begun.
But for Geno Smith, it may already be over.
With the Raiders expected to finalize Kubiak as their next head coach after the Super Bowl, the franchise is quietly preparing for a hard reset at quarterback.
And Smith—brought in under Pete Carroll, extended before last season, and benched multiple times—now feels like the odd man out.
This isn’t personal.
It’s structural.
Kubiak doesn’t have ties to Smith. He didn’t recruit him. He didn’t develop him. And most importantly, the Raiders hold the No. 1 overall pick in a draft class where Fernando Mendoza is widely viewed as the clear top quarterback.
That alone changes everything.
Smith is set to earn $18.5 million next season, a figure that looks heavy only in isolation. In today’s market, even mediocre starting quarterbacks can command $20 million annually.
Smith’s contract, while frustrating in hindsight, is actually movable.
And that’s where the real opportunity lies.
From a cap perspective, cutting Smith offers no relief. The Raiders would eat the full $18.5 million regardless of timing.
Trading him, however, clears the contract entirely—while opening the door to recoup draft capital and transition cleanly to a rookie quarterback on a cost-controlled deal.
Yes, the trade would spike the cap hit to $26.5 million in the short term. But that pain becomes manageable when paired with a rookie QB salary and long-term flexibility.
In other words: it’s expensive—but efficient.
The bigger question isn’t if the Raiders should trade Geno Smith.
It’s where.
Atlanta stands out as the most logical destination.
With Kirk Cousins likely gone and Michael Penix Jr. still inconsistent, the Falcons are staring at a quarterback vacuum.
They’ve assembled offensive weapons—Bijan Robinson, Drake London, Kyle Pitts—that shouldn’t be wasting seasons hovering around .500.
They also just hired Tanner Engstrand as passing game coordinator, a coach familiar with Smith’s arc and someone who has worked with quarterbacks who later revived their careers elsewhere.
Add Kevin Stefanski to the equation, and suddenly Atlanta looks like the one place where Smith could realistically compete again—rather than simply serve as a bridge.
From the Raiders’ perspective, the trade value doesn’t need to be spectacular. Smith is entering his age-36 season. The goal isn’t a first-round pick. It’s flexibility.
A package involving a 2026 sixth-round pick and a Day 2 pick in 2027—especially in what’s projected to be a strong quarterback class—makes sense for both sides. Atlanta gets a veteran with nearly 100 career starts. Las Vegas gets breathing room.
And clarity.
Because clarity is what the Raiders need most right now.
Drafting Mendoza is the easy decision. Building around him is the real challenge. Clearing Smith’s contract early allows the front office to spend aggressively elsewhere, accelerate the rebuild, and avoid the awkwardness of a veteran quarterback looming over a rookie-led future.
For Geno Smith, this trade isn’t an insult.
It’s a lifeline.
His 2025 season in Las Vegas was rough. Turnovers. Benches. Frustration. But the league has a long memory—and it also has a short one. A competent stretch in the right system could rewrite the narrative again.
Atlanta offers that chance. Las Vegas does not.
The Kubiak era is about clean lines. New voices. New timelines.
And that means the Raiders’ first real move may not be selecting their quarterback of the future—but deciding where to send the quarterback of the past.
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