NFL discourse thrives on confidence. The sharper the conviction, the louder the reaction. But every so often, the league delivers a reminder that certainty is fragileâand the 2025 season offered one of its clearest examples.

In March 2025, ESPN analyst Mina Kimes didnât hedge. She didnât soften her words. When the Seattle Seahawks traded Geno Smith and prepared to sign Sam Darnold, she called it âflat out⊠a terrible move.â
The odds of upgrading at quarterback, she argued, were âextremely low.â The Raiders, meanwhile, were applauded for landing Smith at a bargain.
At the time, the logic wasnât outrageous. Smith had resurrected his career in Seattle. Darnoldâs rĂ©sumĂ© carried scars. And the move felt risky in a league allergic to uncertainty.
Fast forward one season, and the verdict feels unavoidable.

Seattle didnât just survive the moveâthey thrived because of it.
Geno Smithâs reunion with Pete Carroll in Las Vegas unraveled quickly. Behind a porous offensive line, Smith threw a league-high 17 interceptions, absorbed 55 sacks, and watched the Raiders spiral to a 3â14 record.
The collapse cost Las Vegas the No. 1 pick, ended Carrollâs tenure after a single season, and turned what was billed as stability into dysfunction.

Meanwhile, the Seahawks found something far more valuable than reassurance.
Under second-year head coach Mike Macdonald, Sam Darnold didnât chase gaudy numbers. He delivered timing, control, and restraint.
Seattle finished 14â3, earned the NFCâs top seed, and punched its ticket to Super Bowl LX with a gritty NFC Championship win over the Ramsâpowered by Darnoldâs cleanest performance yet: 346 yards, three touchdowns, zero interceptions.
The contrast is stark.
What makes this moment linger isnât that an analyst was wrong. Everyone is wrong in the NFLâconstantly. Itâs the confidence of the original dismissal, paired with how completely reality inverted it.

To her credit, Kimes didnât duck accountability. She acknowledged the miss, admitted sheâs been wrong before, and celebrated Darnoldâs success. That humility matters. But the whiplash remains.
Because this wasnât a marginal call. It wasnât a coin flip gone the wrong way. It was a declaration that a team had boxed itself into failureâfollowed by that same team reaching the Super Bowl.
The episode highlights a deeper truth about quarterback evaluation. Context matters more than pedigree. Stability matters more than familiarity. Smith moved into chaos. Darnold stepped into structure. The results followed.

It also exposes the danger of anchoring to the past. Smithâs Seattle success didnât travel. Darnoldâs earlier struggles didnât define him. The league changed around themâand Seattle understood that faster than most.
The Seahawks didnât win this argument on social media. They won it on Sundays.
And while Mina Kimes remains one of the NFLâs most thoughtful voices, this take will lingerânot as a referendum on her career, but as a cautionary tale. The NFL doesnât reward confidence. It rewards adaptation.

The 2025 season didnât just flip a narrative.
It silenced one.
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