At first glance, Isaac Paredes avoiding arbitration with the Astros felt like a routine offseason development hardly worth attention.

Sep 20, 2025; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Astros designated hitter Isaac Paredes (15) stands in the dugout before the game against the Seattle Mariners at Daikin Park. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images | Troy Taormina-Imagn Images
The two sides agreed to a $9.35 million salary for 2026, quietly closing the book on a procedural matter.
Nothing about the settlement appeared controversial, dramatic, or predictive of Houston’s long-term intentions.
That changed once the full contract details became public.
Buried within the agreement was a club option for the 2027 season, a detail missing from early reports.
Suddenly, what seemed like paperwork took on strategic significance.

The option converts to a mutual one only if Paredes finishes top ten in MVP voting, an unlikely but notable condition.
More importantly, declining the option would not cost the Astros control of Paredes for 2027.
Houston would still retain his arbitration rights, preserving flexibility regardless of how the option is exercised.

This mirrors a recent maneuver by the Brewers, who declined William Contreras’ option to save against arbitration projections.
The key difference is that the Astros did not need to get creative to maintain control over Paredes.
They already owned his rights through 2027, making the option feel deliberate rather than necessary.
That choice may quietly reveal how Houston views its infield future.
For months, speculation has centered on whether the Astros prefer Paredes or Christian Walker long term.
This contract structure suggests Paredes holds the internal advantage.
At twenty-six, his age, swing profile, and fit at Daikin Park align perfectly with Houston’s competitive window.

Walker, meanwhile, carries a heavier contract as an aging first baseman coming off a down season.
Financial logic increasingly favors Paredes as the more sustainable piece.
However, logic does not always dictate timing.
Until the Astros find a trade partner willing to absorb Walker’s deal, uncertainty remains.

As a result, rumors involving Paredes refuse to disappear, even as signs quietly point the other way.
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