The Baltimore Orioles are entering a phase where every decision has a price. As their young players approach the expensive arbitration years, the team can no longer afford to “wait and see.” The Orioles must clearly identify who their long-term pillars are—and who aren’t. For Colton Cowser, the 2026 season could be the final dividing line.
Just two years ago, Cowser was a symbol of the future. In the 2024 season, he finished second in the AL Rookie of the Year race, contributing positively both offensively and defensively, looking like the perfect piece for the Orioles’ outfield. But 2025 has reversed almost all those expectations.
Despite reportedly playing while not fully healthy, Cowser’s 2025 performance is difficult to excuse. In 360 plate appearances, he only achieved a slash line of .196/.269/.385. More importantly, the disciplinary plate metrics have fallen to alarming levels: bottom 1% MLB in strikeout rate, bottom 2% in whiff rate. This isn’t a typical slump—this is a structural problem.
The only bright spot is defense. Cowser remains a reliable outfielder, and that’s why he’s still in the lineup. But defense only helps you survive; it doesn’t help the team go deep. And Baltimore no longer has the goal of “survival.”
In the last offseason, the Orioles signed Pete Alonso and clearly pushed all the chips into the middle of the table. Expectations are no longer about “competition”—but about immediate results. In that context, waiting for Cowser to rediscover himself in the first half of the season is a costly gamble. There have been voices suggesting he should have lost his spot long ago. If Cowser continues to underperform in early 2026, that pressure will quickly escalate.
It’s highly likely the Orioles will still give Cowser a starting opportunity at center field. The reason is simple: he was once very good, and his pedigree is not mediocre. But don’t confuse “opportunity” with “guarantee.” This year’s leash will be much shorter.
Baltimore has a young depth knocking on the door. Other players deserve a chance, and the team can’t sacrifice offensive tempo just to keep a name that once shone. With the arbitration date approaching, every plate appearance of Cowser in 2026 will be a test: can he adjust, reduce his K, improve his ball contact, and return to being a real threat?
If the answer is yes, Cowser will save himself—and keep his place. If not, the Orioles will be forced to move on without looking back. In a team that’s accelerating, the past is no longer a ticket.
The 2026 season, therefore, is not just a “bounce-back” season. For Colton Cowser, it’s the season to prove that 2024 isn’t a pipe dream — and that he deserves to be a part of Baltimore when things are more expensive and demanding than ever before.
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