🔥 HOT NEWS: Musgrove’s first outing since surgery shows promising velocity as San Diego dreams of an ace return ⚡ .NL

Seventeen months after surgery, Joe Musgrove finally took the mound again—and the Padres are watching every pitch like it could define their season.
The comeback has begun, but the question hanging over San Diego is impossible to ignore: can Musgrove truly return to ace form?

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Joe Musgrove’s Comeback Begins: Padres Banking on His Return to Stabilize a Fragile Rotation

PEORIA, Ariz. — When Joe Musgrove stepped back onto the mound this week, it wasn’t just another spring training outing.

It was the beginning of a comeback that could shape the entire future of the San Diego Padres’ 2026 season.

Seventeen months after undergoing Tommy John surgery, Musgrove finally appeared in a televised game again, marking his first competitive outing since October 2, 2024, when he pushed through a damaged elbow ligament during the National League Wild Card Series before his arm finally gave out.

Now the right-hander is back—and the Padres are cautiously optimistic.

“Joe’s capable of being the best pitcher in the National League,” Padres manager Craig Stammen said earlier in the day. “The way he prepares and the attention to detail he brings… we’ve seen pitchers come back from Tommy John and have spectacular seasons.”

Then came the realistic pause.

“Is that guaranteed? No. But we know we’re going to get a very good version of Joe Musgrove.”

The Long Road Back

For Musgrove, the journey back has been anything but simple.

Tommy John surgery has extended the careers of countless pitchers over the past five decades, yet the recovery process remains unpredictable.

Some pitchers return stronger than ever.

Others spend years chasing the form they once had.

Musgrove understands that reality better than most.

“I’ve talked to a lot of guys who say they don’t feel completely normal until around that two-year mark,” he said after the game. “So I’m not trying to compare myself to anyone else. I’m just taking the ball every fifth day and seeing how my body responds.”

That mindset reflects both patience and realism.

Musgrove isn’t chasing an immediate return to dominance.

He’s chasing consistency.

A Promising First Step

In his exhibition outing against Great Britain, Musgrove threw 60 pitches, 36 for strikes, across just over two innings.

The performance wasn’t perfect.

He struggled early, throwing 26 pitches in the first inning while allowing a walk, a strikeout, and three consecutive singles before being removed.

But under exhibition rules, he was allowed to return in the second inning.

And that’s where things began to click.

Musgrove finished the inning by inducing a pop-out from Jazz Chisholm Jr., the New York Yankees’ dynamic second baseman.

Earlier in the game, he had already struck Chisholm out with a 95.2 mph fastball, a pitch that hinted his velocity might be returning.

In fact, Musgrove averaged 94 mph on his four-seam fastball, slightly higher than his velocity during the 2024 season before surgery.

It wasn’t dominance.

But it was progress.

A Rotation Searching for Stability

For the Padres, Musgrove’s recovery carries enormous importance.

San Diego’s rotation entering the 2026 season is filled with both potential and uncertainty.

Several pitchers expected to contribute carry injury histories of their own.

• Michael King has dealt with recurring physical setbacks.
• Germán Márquez is attempting to regain form after his own struggles.
• Walker Buehler, now in the mix as a two-time Tommy John surgery survivor, is fighting to reestablish himself.

Amid that uncertainty, Musgrove could become the stabilizing force the team desperately needs.

If healthy, he is projected to slot in as the No. 3 starter, but his leadership and experience could anchor the entire rotation.

The Reality of Tommy John Comebacks

Recent MLB history shows just how unpredictable these recoveries can be.

Some pitchers have returned spectacularly from the surgery.

Jacob deGrom, Matthew Boyd, and Kris Bubic all reached All-Star status in 2025 following their procedures.

Others have struggled.

Former stars Sandy Alcantara, Antonio Senzatela, and Germán Márquez endured difficult seasons after returning.

The difference often comes down to timing, conditioning, and how well the pitcher adapts to the rebuilt elbow.

Musgrove knows the expectations surrounding his comeback—but he’s keeping his personal goals simple.

“I don’t expect to throw 180 or 200 innings this year,” he admitted. “But I do expect to take the ball consistently and compete.”

Checking Boxes Toward Opening Day

Musgrove’s next appearance could come in a Cactus League game, possibly against the Los Angeles Angels.

If the schedule holds, he’ll likely make two more spring starts before making his official return in late March.

The Padres will open the season against the Detroit Tigers, less than a month away.

But even Musgrove acknowledges that the comeback process will take time.

“To me, this is another step,” he said. “Pitching in a real big-league game again will be another adjustment. For now, I’m just checking boxes and building up.”

For San Diego, every box checked could mean the difference between uncertainty and stability.

And if Musgrove truly finds his old form again, the Padres may discover that their most important addition this season wasn’t a free-agent signing.

It was the return of their own ace.