The idea of Tarik Skubal joining the Baltimore Orioles is almost irresistible. A world-class ace like Cy Young, a left-hander at the peak of his form, and a young team that only needs one final piece to cross the line between “dangerous” and “truly formidable.” In the short term, it’s a dream.
But precisely because it’s so appealing, the trade smells… risky.
According to a scenario presented by Bleacher Report, the Orioles could trade Dylan Beavers, Trey Gipson, and Luis De Leon for Skubal. Even setting aside the question of whether the Detroit Tigers would accept that price for one or two games with the current Cy Young, the bigger question lies with Baltimore: is one year of Skubal worth sacrificing future depth?
The answer is not simple.
No one denies the immediate impact of Skubal. Putting him in the current rotation, the Orioles would have a true ace for the seven-game playoff series—one who could overwhelm opponents and change the entire way the series is structured. The “Skubal + a strong offseason” scenario sounds very much like the AL representative formula at the World Series. Emotionally, it’s hard to say no.
But Baltimore has been down this road before.
In 2024, they traded Corbin Burnes in his final contract season. Burnes shot well. The Orioles went deep. Then he left quietly. The lesson isn’t that the trade was wrong—it set the clock for the next cycle. Repeating that scenario with Skubal would be an “all-in” declaration for 2026, regardless of what happens afterward.
And the price this time is not invisible.
Dylan Beavers may not be a star yet, but his consistent basemanship and plate discipline are something the Orioles have always valued. Trey Gipson is at Triple-A, nearing MLB threshold with a solid starter profile. Luis De Leon is a speed gamble—a young lefty with rare upside. Three different paths, but if just one of them becomes a solid contributor, the trade will shift.
The issue isn’t that Skubal isn’t deserving. He deserves any championship roster. The issue is the timeframe. Skubal will likely test the market after 2026. At that point, the Orioles will have to compete financially with teams willing to pay the maximum for a top-tier ace. If they fail, Baltimore will enter 2027 lacking depth—at a time when the younger generation needs a boost.
There’s a crucial difference between “optimizing opportunities” and “burning the future.” The Orioles have built their success by avoiding the latter trap. They’re flexible, patient, and usually only act when the probability of retaining value is high. Skubal, with his contract nearing its end, doesn’t offer that guarantee.
Of course, fans have the right to dream. A spectacular 2026 season, a playoff run where Skubal throws Game 1 and Game 5, and the whole city shakes. But baseball rarely rewards decisions that only look one year ahead.
Sometimes, the hardest thing isn’t taking the risk—it’s knowing when to turn down an opportunity that seems too good to be true. Skubal would make the Orioles stronger immediately. But if that comes at the cost of stability in the years to come, the price could become far more expensive once the season wears off.
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