The number isn’t overwhelming. It isn’t decisive. But it lingers.
Forty-nine percent.
That’s how many Padres fans believe A.J. Preller will make a significant move before Spring Training begins. Not a majority. Not a rejection either. Just a clean split — and that might be the most revealing part.
Because the divide isn’t really about optimism or pessimism. It’s about trust.
San Diego has heard this story before. Promises of “one more bat.” Hints at starting pitching. Rumors that feel close enough to touch but never quite materialize. The Miguel Andujar signing, while technically progress, didn’t answer the question fans have been asking all winter.
Is this the move… or just movement?
Preller’s recent offseason has been filled with near-misses. Reports tied the Padres to Framber Valdez before he landed in Detroit. Paul Goldschmidt was briefly in the conversation before choosing New York. Each rumor kept the door open just long enough for belief to creep back in — and then shut again.
That pattern has created something new in San Diego: cautious belief.
Fans haven’t stopped trusting Preller’s creativity. They’ve stopped trusting the timing.
History complicates the picture. Preller has a habit of striking late. Dylan Cease arrived just before the Seoul Series. Nick Pivetta came after Spring Training began, on a contract that looked risky until it suddenly looked brilliant. These moves built the myth that patience is part of the plan.
But patience cuts both ways.
This year feels different because the margins feel tighter. Financial constraints are no longer whispers. The farm system, once a weapon, is now ranked among the weakest in baseball. Every trade idea comes with a quiet asterisk: at what cost?
Free agents still exist. Zac Gallen. Lucas Giolito. Chris Bassitt. Even aging legends like Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander hover on the edges of possibility. On the position-player side, the options thin quickly. Any “significant move” now likely requires creativity — or sacrifice.
That’s where the unease sets in.
Preller could pull off something unexpected. A trade with Baltimore. A deal with Boston. A move no one saw coming until it’s already done. That’s the version of him fans remember.
But there’s another version, too — the one constrained by payroll, limited by depth, forced to sell belief instead of certainty.
Spring Training is no longer theoretical. Pitchers and catchers report this week. The calendar has stopped being forgiving. Any move made now won’t feel proactive. It will feel reactive — even if it helps.
That’s why the 49% matters.
It’s not about expecting a miracle. It’s about fearing the quiet.
Because if Spring Training begins and nothing significant happens, the question won’t be whether Preller failed. It will be whether the Padres waited too long to admit what kind of offseason this really was.
And once that realization sets in, belief becomes harder to sell — no matter how creative the next move might be.
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