🔥 HOT NEWS: Valdez, Suárez, and King have left the table—Baltimore are left with one gamble: Zac Gallen ⚡ .MH

The Baltimore Orioles kicked off the winter season with explosive performances that caught the attention of the entire American League: Pete Alonso, Ryan Helsley, Shane Baz, and Taylor Ward. But since mid-December, things have stalled.

Fifty-three days have passed without a new frontline starter arriving.

Meanwhile, names previously linked with Baltimore, such as Framber Valdez, Ranger Suárez, and Michael King, have all signed with other teams. The ace market is shrinking. And now, the most prominent name remaining is Zac Gallen.

Once a mainstay of the Arizona Diamondbacks. Once an All-Star. And now, a gamble.

According to Bob Nightengale, Gallen’s market is heating up. The Padres, Cubs, and Diamondbacks are all being mentioned. And the Orioles are in that group as well.

On the surface, Gallen possesses elements that Baltimore lacks: the ability to score innings and control the game. From 2020 to present, he has thrown 927.1 innings—top 10 in MLB. His .278 bap is also elite. He’s not the kind of pitcher who relies solely on highlights; he relies on consistency.

But baseball isn’t just about total innings. It’s about trends.

2024 began to show cracks. Opponent’s average exit velocity was 90 mph (19th percentile), hard-hit rate 41% (30th percentile). Fastball run value dropped to the low end (15th percentile). Breaking ball was still excellent (98th percentile), offspeed was still high quality. He relied on secondary pitches, while fastball was no longer dominant.

Then 2025 arrived—the contract year should have been a strong rebound.

Instead, it was a fall.

33 games, 192 innings, but an ERA of 4.83. Whip of 1.26. Breaking run value from 98th percentile to 7th percentile—a drop of 91 percentage points. Barrel rate 9.7%. Hard-hit 43%. Strikeout rate only 21.5%. Walk rate increased. Average fastball 93.5 mph—not bad, but not enough to mask the fact that he’s been read more often.

The problem isn’t one bad game. It’s a two-year trend.

So what is Baltimore seeing?

If you were Mike Elias, you’d have to ask yourself: is this a real downturn, or just a misalignment? 30 isn’t old. But it’s no longer the “untapped potential” stage either.

The Orioles have been criticized for lacking a frontline starter. Elias says the current rotation is strong enough. But if he truly believes that, why is he still following the Gallen market?

The truth might lie somewhere in between.

Baltimore didn’t want to pay a huge AAV price for a pitcher showing signs of decline. But they also understood that if Rogers, Bradish, or Baz had problems, the rotation would immediately become fragile. Gallen might no longer be a pure ace, but he could still be a high-quality insurance policy.

The question is: for how much money?

If the market pushes Gallen’s price to a truly “big fish” level, the Orioles might back down. If the price is more reasonable—a 3-4 year contract with a controllable AAV—this could be a strategic gamble.

Because ultimately, this isn’t just about pitching.

It’s about belief. Elias said the rotation was strong enough. If he doesn’t act, that statement will become the benchmark. If he signs Gallen, he’s admitting that the rotation isn’t strong enough.

The market is heating up. And Baltimore doesn’t have much time left.

Sometimes, not choosing is also a choice. But in a playoff race, that choice is often judged most harshly.