The Chiefs hold a top-10 pick.
They need receiver help.
History says that might be a trap.
Chiefs Must Avoid First-Round WR Mistake
Kansas City is staring at a pivotal decision with the No. 9 overall pick.
Wide receiver is an obvious need. The names are enticing — Makai Lemon, Carnell Tate, Jordyn Tyson. The buzz from the combine only amplified the conversation.
But history is flashing a warning sign.
The Corey Davis Reminder
In 2017, Tennessee drafted Corey Davis at No. 5 overall — five picks before the Chiefs selected Patrick Mahomes.
Davis was solid. Never elite.
- Zero 1,000-yard seasons
- Never started more than 12 games in a season
- Fewer than three touchdowns per year on average
Two other wide receivers went top-10 that year — Mike Williams and John Ross.
Combined Pro Bowls among them?
Zero.
Meanwhile, Kansas City walked away with Mahomes at No. 10.
The Top-10 WR Trend Isn’t Great
Since 2017, 13 wide receivers have been drafted in the top 10.
Only two have made a Pro Bowl:
- Ja’Marr Chase (5 selections)
- Malik Nabers (1)
Chase is the exception. Not the rule.
Even talented players like:
- Jaylen Waddle
- Drake London
- Marvin Harrison Jr.
- Garrett Wilson
- DeVonta Smith
- Rome Odunze
…have experienced inconsistency, injury stretches, or failed to fully match draft hype.
That’s not to say they’re bad players.
But top-10 pick good? Franchise-altering good?
That’s rare.
The Mahomes Factor
Kansas City isn’t rebuilding.
They have Patrick Mahomes.
That changes the equation.
The Chiefs don’t need a “pretty good” receiver at No. 9.
They need either:
- A true alpha difference-maker
- Or a cornerstone at another premium position
If Lemon, Tate or Tyson aren’t projected to become Ja’Marr Chase-level players, using a top-10 pick on them could become a cautionary tale.
Even Chiefs History Says Be Careful
Kansas City hasn’t exactly nailed first-round receivers.
- Dwayne Bowe (2007) — 1 Pro Bowl
- Jonathan Baldwin (2011) — disappointment
- Xavier Worthy (2024) — still developing
It’s a mixed bag at best.
Meanwhile, the Chiefs have consistently found value at other positions in Round 1 — or have traded strategically.
The Smarter Play?
History suggests this:
- Address wide receiver in free agency
- Target value in Rounds 2 and 3
- Use the No. 9 pick on a more stable premium position (edge, offensive tackle, defensive tackle)
Wide receiver is important — but volatility at the top of the draft is real.
Kansas City can’t afford a luxury swing-and-miss.
Bottom Line
The Chiefs need help at wide receiver.
But the data says:
Top-10 wideouts are far from guaranteed.
If Brett Veach and company aren’t convinced one of these prospects is truly elite — generational elite — they should resist the temptation.
Because with Mahomes, the margin for error is smaller.
And a first-round miss lingers for years.
Leave a Reply