William Contreras and the Milwaukee Brewers are very close to an arbitration that’s not just about money, but also about the power dynamic between the team and one of MLB’s best catchers currently.
Contreras submitted a $9.90 million salary offer for the 2026 season — a figure that would set a record for a catcher in their second year of arbitration. The Brewers responded with $8.55 million, matching Will Smith’s previous record. The difference isn’t huge, but in an “all or nothing” arbitration system, that difference is enough to decide history.
The crucial point lies in the $9.225 million median. Arbitrators cannot compromise. They can only choose one of the two. And right now, all signs point to the balance tipping in Contreras’s favor.
What just happened with Tarik Skubal is a clear warning to teams. Detroit submitted a $19.0 million bid, lower than David Price’s previous record, and Skubal won big with $32.0 million, setting a new record for arbitration. This case illustrates the system’s increasing favoritism towards elite players, especially those with a direct influence on victory.
Putting Contreras in the same context, the Brewers are facing a similar dilemma—only on a smaller scale, but the logic is identical.
Compared directly to Will Smith at the same stage of his career, Contreras is superior in almost every aspect:
Hits: 602 vs. 554
Doubles: 122 vs. 104
Batting Average: .273 vs. .258
OBP: .357 vs. .350
Stolen Bases: 23 vs. 10
Highest Season RBI: 92 vs. 87
Highest WAR rating per season: 4.9 vs. 4.5
These numbers don’t just reflect offensive prowess. They tell the story of a well-rounded catcher—one who both leads the pitching staff and serves as a cornerstone of the lineup. In an era where elite catchers are rare, Contreras is at the forefront.
What puts the Brewers in a difficult position is their limited argumentative space. Contreras not only outclassed Smith in terms of performance, but also demonstrated remarkable consistency across seasons, despite the Brewers’ frequent roster rotations. He is one of the team’s few “fixed points.”
If arbitrators view the case through the lens of “precedent,” the Brewers might hope to maintain the $8.55 million figure. But if they consider the new trend in arbitration—where elite players are rewarded appropriately—Contreras’s $9.90 million figure begins to look… much more reasonable.
And here’s what makes the situation so sensitive: The Brewers are known for being frugal, building a smart roster, and not wasting money. But when you have a catcher at the peak of his career, winning an arbitration by forcing a pay cut can have long-term consequences—in terms of trust, relationships, and how the player perceives the organization.
If Contreras wins, it’s not just a pay raise. It’s a statement that he’s moved to another level. And if the Brewers lose, they’ll have to ask themselves: is this the moment they should be considering a change in their playing style?
Leave a Reply