Fantasy Football Mock Draft: Ashton Jeanty Caps Off Round 1
Saturday, February 21st
Who doesn’t love a way-too-early fantasy football mock draft of the first round? This is how I see things shaking out in the first round ahead of free agency and the NFL Draft.
Way-Too-Early Fantasy Football Mock Draft: Round 1
1. Bijan Robinson | RB | Falcons
Robinson has finished as the RB2 and RB3 in PPR formats with 22 and 20 points per game (PPG) over the last two seasons. In 2025, he posted a career-high 95 Utilization Score, handling 63% of the Falcons’ rushing attempts and notching an impressive 20% target share.
Not only does Robinson get plenty of work, but he is electric with the ball in his hands—he took 13% of his attempts for 10-plus yards, well above the NFL average of 9%.
Tyler Allgeier is an unrestricted free agent. Last season, Allgeier accounted for 48% of the team’s rushing attempts inside the five-yard line, splitting with Robinson (48%).
Robinson flashed high-end rushing TD upside in 2024 with 14, which is a number he could push for again in Kevin Stefanski’s offense if Allgeier moves on in free agency.
Heading into his fourth season, Robinson is what every fantasy manager dreams of: a dual-threat back in their prime.
2. Puka Nacua | WR | Rams
Nacua has delivered top-six fantasy finishes all three seasons of his career, notching WR1, WR3 and WR6 campaigns. In those seasons, he averaged 17.6, 18.8 and 23.6 points per game. Sean McVay is one of the best play callers in the NFL, consistently finding ways to get Nacua into open space despite defenses knowing it’s coming.
The former BYU product has upped his target share each season: 29%, 30% and 31%. With the kingmaker, Matthew Stafford, coming back for his 18th season, Nacua is set up for another monster campaign.
Over the last two seasons, Nacua was a turn pick at the end of Round 1; we should expect a much steeper price tag in 2026. He will be a top-three selection in most formats.
3. Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | Lions
Gibbs has produced RB8, RB2 and RB3 seasons with 16.3, 21.5 and 21.7 points over his first three years in the NFL. He is an electric playmaker with a 14.8% career explosive rush rate (10-plus-yard attempts) and a dynamic receiver out of the backfield.
Despite playing in a loaded offense, he had an 18% target share and ranked first in targets per route run (TPRR) at 25% last year.
The one concern regarding Gibbs in previous years was the split backfield with David Montgomery. Over his first two years, that was the case, but in 2025, the Lions opened up the throttle.
Snaps: 57% → 67%
Attempts: 51% → 57%
Routes: 54% → 59%
The primary area where Gibbs hasn’t been able to dethrone Montgomery is inside the five-yard line. Last year, Gibbs handled 38% of those attempts while Montgomery accounted for 62%.
Gibbs is set for a large role in what should be one of the best offenses in the league. If his role expands inside the five, he would be a frontrunner to finish as the No. 1 flex player in fantasy football.
4. Ja’Marr Chase | WR | Bengals
Chase finished as the WR3 with 19.6 PPG in 2025 after a WR1 campaign with 23.7 PPG in 2024. Joe Burrow missed some time, but the alpha WR still managed a great season. He was the No. 3 WR in target share at 33% and notched the No. 3 Utilization Score (93).
You could make a case for Chase as the No. 1 player off the board in 2026 drafts; he is in a tier with Robinson, Nacua and Gibbs. An alpha WR in their prime, residing in a pass-first offense with Burrow—one of the best passers in the league—is a recipe for high-end fantasy production.
5. Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | Seahawks
Smith-Njigba broke out over the second half of the 2024 season. He averaged 18.2 PPG with a 27% target share from Week 9 through the end of the year. The former first-round NFL Draft pick took things to another level in 2025.
JSN delivered 20.2 PPG, including the playoffs, showing he could win on the outside and attack more vertically. He only played from the slot on 19% of plays, down from 77% in 2024. His average depth of target increased from 8.7 to 11.1.
He led all WRs in target share at 35% and finished second behind Nacua in yards per route run (YPRR) at 3.47. Those are superstar levels. Good WRs get to 25% and 2.25 in those categories, respectively.
With Klint Kubiak taking the head coaching job for the Raiders, Brian Fleury will take over the offensive coordinator position. Fleury will run a similar offense to Kubiak after spending the last seven years with the 49ers in various roles. He has never called plays before, but the fact that JSN doesn’t need pampering as a gadget player offsets some of the risk.
JSN should be off the board in the first six picks of drafts.
6. Christian McCaffrey | RB | 49ers
McCaffrey was the RB1 in 2025, averaging 23.9 points per game. He has notched a top-three finish in each of his last three healthy seasons. While his rushing efficiency plummeted to 3.9 yards per carry, well below his marks of 4.5 and 5.4 in 2022 and 2023, he remained highly involved in the passing game. CMC led all RBs with a 23% target share.
McCaffrey will be 30 when the 2026 season kicks off. That, paired with his drop in rushing productivity, is why he is unlikely to be the No. 1 pick in drafts. However, we have seen efficiency bounce-back seasons from aging superstars before, and the 49ers’ offense could improve solely with health, not to mention any offseason upgrades. CMC still carries No. 1 overall upside, but in this mock, I have drafters leaning to the younger superstars ahead of him.
7. CeeDee Lamb | WR | Cowboys
Lamb was the No. 1 WR in fantasy in 2023 with 23.8 PPG. However, over the last two seasons, he has dealt with injuries and a changing team environment, both of which have impacted his performance. In 2024, Dak Prescott played only eight games, and in 2025, George Pickens arrived on the scene. He averaged 17.6 and 14.4 PPG, finishing as the WR8 and WR13, respectively, in those seasons.
The Cowboys are expected to sign Pickens to an extension or use the exclusive franchise tag to keep him on the team in 2026. While that could hamper his chances of reaching his max potential, he will only be 27, and his underlying data still points toward high-end WR1 talent.
YPRR: 2.37 (WR1-worthy)
TPRR: 25% (WR1-worthy)
Despite the target competition from Pickens, Lamb resides in one of the few offenses that have continued to put up large passing numbers. The league average for passing yards per game (210) reached its lowest mark since 2006 in 2025. Prescott ranked third in passing yards per game last season with 268.
Lamb still carries high-end WR1 upside thanks to a strong talent profile and a passing offense that can still rack up big yardage.
8. Jonathan Taylor | RB | Colts
Taylor was one of the best picks in fantasy football in 2025, averaging 21.3 PPG as a Round 2 pick. He finished as the RB4, leading the NFL with 18 rushing TDs. While repeating that sort of rushing TD total is not likely, Taylor is still in his prime (27), and the competition for touches in Indianapolis isn’t high.
The one knock on Taylor is his limited receiving ability, which has historically hurt him in bad game scripts. However, he notched a career-high 68% route participation rate last season, enabling a respectable 11% target share.
The Colts are expected to bring back Daniel Jones, who is coming off a late-season Achilles tear, which creates some concern around the QB position. Taylor’s fantasy production plummeted to 12.9 PPG after the loss of Jones, despite handling 82% of the attempts and a 9% target share.
Despite this concern, I expect Taylor to be a mid-to-late Round 1 pick in fantasy drafts after a huge 2025 season.
9. Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR | Lions
St. Brown has been one of the most consistent assets in fantasy football over the last three seasons.
2023: 20.8 PPG (WR4), 2.63 YPRR (7th), 30% targets (7th)
2024: 18.5 PPG (WR6), 2.29 YPRR (9th), 27% targets (10th)
2025: 19.1 PPG (WR4), 2.48 YPRR (4th), 31% targets (6th)
He will still be in his prime at 27 when the 2026 season kicks off, and he will be part of what should remain one of the best offenses in the NFL. Is there really anything more we need to say? The Sun God is one of the most bust-proof picks in fantasy football.
10. James Cook | RB | Bills
Cook has emerged as one of the best RBs in fantasy football, finishing as the RB11 and RB6 with 16.7 and 18.1 points per game in 2024 and 2025. While he has not emerged as the prolific passing-game threat his collegiate profile suggested, the Bills have fed Jimbo on the ground. Below are his rush attempt and rush attempt inside the five-yard line shares:
2023: 54%, 14%
2024: 52%, 48%
2025: 67%, 40%
After paying the young back, he collected a career-high in rushing attempts last year with 18.3 per game. Josh Allen is going to do Josh Allen things inside the five, but Cook is getting the majority of what Allen doesn’t take.
Cook is probably a late-Round 1 pick in 2026, but should Joe Brady decide to give him more passing-down work, the fifth-year back would offer similar upside to Jahmyr Gibbs.
11. De’Von Achane | RB | Dolphins
Achane has secured 17.6, 17.6 and 20.2 PPG, finishing as the RB4, RB5 and RB6 over the last three campaigns. Over that span, he has been the most explosive rusher in the league with 15.1% of his attempts going for 10-plus yards, edging out Gibbs (14.8%).
Over the last two seasons, he has been one of the most targeted RBs in the NFL.
2024: 15% target share (3rd)
2025: 20% target share (3rd)
I have Achane ranked ahead of Cook thanks to his passing-game involvement, but I believe drafters will lean slightly toward Cook, who plays on a better team. There is also some risk at QB and Mike McDaniel exiting and Bobby Slowik taking over play-calling duties as the new OC.
Achane is an explosive playmaker with high-end receiving upside, making him worthy of a late Round 1 pick despite the offensive concerns.
12. Ashton Jeanty | RB | Raiders
This pick was the hardest to forecast because we reached a point where all the candidates had considerable question marks.
Justin Jefferson needs a better QB.
Trey McBride might be the safest pick, but it’s hard to get league-winning points from a TE.
Malik Nabers is recovering from an ACL injury.
Drake London is in a new offense and has QB questions.
Ultimately, I wanted to lean into an RB here, and it came down to Jeanty and Omarion Hampton.
I chose Jeanty due to his higher upside as a complete back who could handle 300 carries and reach a 15% target share. However, it was close because I prefer the Chargers’ offense.
Last year, Jeanty had to deal with a terrible offensive line and subpar offensive play-calling. The Raiders hired Klint Kubiak as their new head coach and have the third-most effective cap space per Over the Cap.
They also have the No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft, where they project to select Fernando Mendoza. Basically, I expect enough improvement to allow Jeanty to be a bigger factor in 2026.
As a rookie, Jeanty finished as the RB15 with 14.3 PPG. He was an every-down back with a 78% snap share. He ranked second in attempt share (28%) and seventh in target share (14%). Even with marginal improvements, it isn’t hard to envision 16 to 18 PPG. That would be good for an RB6 to RB11 finish based on the league average over the last three years in PPR formats.
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