A new poll released days after she bolted into the Democratic Senate race has U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett with a lead over state Rep. James Talarico.
They are vying for the seat held by Republican John Cornyn in one of the most watched Senate contests in the nation.
The Texas Southern University survey released Friday had Crockett with a 51% to 43% lead over Talarico.
Crockett, a Dallas Democrat, has strong support with minority voters and women. She’s most formidable with Black voters, where she’s beating Talarico by a commanding 89% to 8% margin.
“Her lead is based on her overwhelming support among Black voters,” said Mark Jones, one of the authors of the poll. “She’s winning nine out of 10 votes among Black voters.”
Crockett said Friday she was pleased with the poll.
“It’s humbling that after four days of being in this race, our campaign has a commanding lead,” Crockett said in a statement. “We will continue to work and share our unifying message with all Texans about how we can have an affordable life.”
JT Ennis, a spokesperson for Talarico’s campaign, said Talarico “starts out very competitive” in a single-digit race.
“Polling consistently shows that the more people get to know James, the more they support him,” Ennis said. “As voters hear his message of taking on the billionaire mega-donors and their puppet politicians, James will earn their support and win.”
Talarico has a 53% to 40% lead over Crockett with white voters, and he’s besting Crockett with Latino voters 51% to 41%. He has a huge advantage, 63% to 34%, with voters under the age of 35.
Crockett leads 59% to 34% with voters over age 55.
White Texans, according to the poll, are 45% of the Democratic primary electorate. Latinos are 30% and Black voters 21%.
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The race features a significant gender gap. The poll has 57% of women intending to vote for Crockett and 36% for Talarico. Men support Talarico over Crockett 52% to 42%. Women make up 56% of the Democratic primary electorate, with men at 43% and those “whose gender identity is something else” accounting for 1%.
Crockett, who was first elected to Congress in 2022, is better known among primary voters than Talarico. The poll found that 94% of likely primary voters know enough about Crockett to have an opinion of her. She’s popular with primary voters, with 85% of likely voters with a favorable opinion, versus 9% with an unfavorable opinion.
In contrast, 79% of poll respondents knew enough about Talarico, an Austin Democrat, to form an opinion of him. He also had a strong approval rating, with 77% of respondents viewing him favorably, and only 2% with an unfavorable opinion.
“The good news for Talarico is that he has room to grow,” Jones said.
Texas Democrats haven’t won a statewide race since 1994, so an issue in the primary campaign will be who can best mobilize voters. Poll respondents thought Crockett would be able to “mobilize Democratic-leaning low propensity voters” for the general election by a 53% 34% margin over Talarico.
“Getting those voters to show up and make their voices heard is the only way for a Democrat to win in Texas,” Crockett said.
Respondents by a 58% to 29% margin said Talarico would be better at winning the votes of crossover Republicans.
Crockett and Talarico are vying to face the winner of the Republican primary between Cornyn, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt of Houston.
The Howard University graduate and Chicago native has covered four presidential campaigns and written extensively about local, state and national politics. Before The News, he was a reporter at The Kansas City Star and The Chicago Defender. You can catch Gromer every Sunday at 8:30 a.m. on NBC 5’s Lone Star Politics.
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