When Shane Bieber unexpectedly decided to opt in and stay in Toronto right after the World Series, many people’s first reaction was: Why?
A former Cy Young, only 30 years old, had just returned from Tommy John and had a fairly consistent half-season. The free agent market was hungry for quality pitching. If there was a time to try your luck with a big contract, now was it.
But then news emerged.
Forearm fatigue. Delayed ramp-up in Spring Training. Opening Day was in doubt.
And suddenly, the decision to stay in Toronto was no longer shocking. It became… logical.
Bieber had returned to MLB at the end of last season after being traded by the Guardians to the Blue Jays during his rehab. He threw 40.1 innings, had a 3.57 ERA, a 1.02 WHIP, and 37 strikeouts in 7 starts. Those numbers were good enough to inspire confidence.
But it’s also enough to show that he’s not quite the dominant version of himself, who could strikeout more than one batter per inning during his prime.
The postseason further clarified this. Bieber failed to get past four innings in two of the four playoff games. And in the fateful Game 7, when Isiah Kiner-Falefa became the center of controversy, it was Bieber who allowed Will Smith to hit the series-winning home run.
That wasn’t the performance of a fully healthy ace.
Now, with the information about forearm fatigue – a keyword that always makes any team nervous when talking about a pitcher after Tommy John’s time – the picture becomes clearer. If Bieber isn’t 100%, rushing into the market and demanding a long-term, high-value contract is an unnecessary gamble.
Instead, he chose to stay.
Another year in Toronto. Getting used to the environment. Getting used to the staff. Getting used to the load management system. Time to rebuild fitness, increase stamina, and – if everything goes according to plan – enter free agency at the end of 2026 in top form.
That’s the strategy.
But a player’s strategy doesn’t always equate to a team’s peace of mind.
The Blue Jays now have two sides to the coin.
The positive side: they retain a pitcher with the potential of Cy Young-caliber without needing a market auction. If Bieber gets fitter throughout the season, Toronto could have a “hidden ace” for the World Series race.
The negative side: nobody knows how long the forearm fatigue will last. Nobody knows if it’s just temporary muscle soreness… or an early warning sign. And nobody can guarantee it won’t recur in mid-July when the workload increases.
The Blue Jays’ rotation has already been strengthened by Dylan Cease and Cody Ponce. They have more depth than before. But they also place a part of their ambition on Bieber returning to his best form.
And that’s where things get tense.
Toronto is in the “competitive window.” They’re just a breath away from the championship. They can’t wait too long. But they also can’t force a not-yet-fully-healthed arm.
Bieber’s opt-in decision is no longer a surprise.
It’s an acknowledgment that he’s not quite ready for the market.
The question is: Are the Blue Jays seizing a golden opportunity to optimize a year of “undervalued” potential ace…
Or are they betting the 2026 season on an arm that’s still finding its footing? âš¡
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