The New York Mets made it clear this offseason that they were determined to fix the problems that derailed their 2025 campaign.
After a late-season collapse that kept them out of the postseason, the front office reshaped the roster with several major additions. Among the most significant moves was the acquisition of right-handed starter Freddy Peralta, a pitcher the Mets believe can anchor their rotation.
But according to early projections, Peralta’s first season in New York might not look quite as dominant as fans expect.
A Big Addition to Fix the Rotation
New York Mets starting pitcher Freddy Peralta | Sam Navarro-Imagn Images
The Mets targeted pitching aggressively after last season exposed major weaknesses in their starting staff.
Injuries and inconsistency plagued the rotation in the second half of the year, and the lack of a clear ace ultimately contributed to the team falling short of a playoff spot.
Peralta was brought in specifically to address that issue.
Coming off an outstanding 2025 season, the 29-year-old right-hander looked every bit like a frontline starter. His numbers included:
- 17–6 record
- 2.70 ERA
- 176.2 innings pitched
- 204 strikeouts
It was arguably the best season of his career and helped establish him as one of the most sought-after pitchers available.
Projections Suggest Regression
Despite that breakout year, projections from FanGraphs paint a more modest picture for 2026.
The model forecasts Peralta finishing with:
- 11–9 record
- 3.83 ERA
While those numbers would still represent a solid season, they fall well short of the dominance he displayed last year.
For a pitcher expected to lead the Mets’ rotation, the projection feels surprisingly conservative.
What the Metrics Say
One reason projection systems may be cautious is Peralta’s expected ERA from last season.
His xERA was 3.42, which suggests that while his performance was excellent, some natural statistical regression could occur.
Even so, that figure still places him comfortably in the range of a high-end starting pitcher.
Entering His Prime
Another reason the projections raised eyebrows is Peralta’s age.
At 29 years old, he should be firmly in his prime and not yet experiencing age-related decline. In theory, that leaves plenty of room for him to maintain — or even build on — the momentum from 2025.
Of course, joining a new team and pitching in a new environment always brings adjustments.
A Chance to Prove the Models Wrong
Projection systems are designed to balance past performance with long-term trends, which often results in conservative forecasts.
But they also miss plenty of breakouts.
For the Mets, the hope is that Peralta’s 2025 campaign wasn’t an outlier but rather a sign that he has evolved into a true frontline starter.
If he comes anywhere close to replicating last season’s dominance, New York’s rotation could quickly transform into one of the most dangerous in the National League.
And if that happens, those cautious projections may end up looking very wrong by October.
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