U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett has choices to make.
In the aftermath of the Republican-driven rejiggering of congressional boundaries, Crockett is pondering whether to run in District 30, which she currently represents, or District 33, where she now lives. Her decision could determine the fates of Rep. Julie Johnson of Farmers Branch and Marc Veasey of Fort Worth, Democrats also affected by redistricting.
Crockett has other considerations, too.
She has not ruled out campaigning for statewide office in 2026. A Senate campaign is a possibility. Crockett, a civil rights and criminal defense lawyer, also could run for Texas attorney general.
Crockett is clear-eyed about her statewide prospects, and said that such a move wouldn’t occur until data showed a Democrat could win in Texas. A Democrat hasn’t won a statewide race since 1994.
“I definitely don’t feel like a statewide race is anything that I have to jump out and be like, ‘Oh, I’m running,’” Crockett said. “I know that there’s a lot of people that are looking at running statewide, and I want to see what happens, because polls can move and move quickly.”
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Crockett said the political climate could change, causing a statewide race to make sense.
“I believe in staying ready and you ain’t got to get ready, so I’m going to keep doing the things that I do around the state and otherwise, especially as we go through this redistricting fight,” she said.
“The question is can you win the general election,” Crockett added. “That’s all that matters.”
Can Crockett win a statewide contest in red Texas?
Let’s examine.
For nearly 32 years Texas Democrats have been searching for the correct formula to win a statewide race.
They have fielded candidates left of center, business Democrats and candidates touting their bipartisan credentials. Nothing has worked, though former U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke of El Paso came within 2.6 percentage points of beating Republican Ted Cruz for Senate in 2018.
A Black woman, Crockett would be unlike any candidate Democrats have offered as a statewide nominee. Her viral moments have caused her name recognition to soar, and she would potentially activate the infrequent voters and nonvoters needed to seriously compete with Republicans — including Black voters, women and young voters.
“As far as enthusiasm, we’ll see record voter turnout, specifically amongst Democrats,” said Kardal Coleman, chairman of the Dallas County Democratic Party. “She brings a lot of excitement. She’s a national name, she’s a high-profile fundraiser, and people really respond well to her around the state.”
Texas Republican Party Chairman Abraham George said he thinks Crockett will return to Congress instead of running for Senate. That’s too bad, he said, because her appearance on a statewide ticket would help his cause.
“She’s smart enough to know that the best move for her is to return to Congress and run statewide another time,” George said. “I hope she does run for Senate. It would drive Republicans to the polls and make my job much easier.”
Crockett was confident she could fire up the Democratic base. She said Democrats need an exciting candidate with name recognition to break through in the Lone Star State. She said on too many occasions Democrats start statewide races with little to no name recognition, which requires them to spend critical resources to introduce themselves to voters.
Many Texans already know her name.
“Whoever the Democratic Senate nominee is, they are going to have to evoke some level of excitement in the base,” she said. “You’re gonna need some excitement so that people will get out and block walk, tell their friends, drag their kids, all that kind of stuff. People are watching to see if that excitement begins to form.”
The Democratic Senate primary includes former U.S. Rep. Colin Allred of Dallas, who in 2024 ran unsuccessfully against Republican Sen. Ted Cruz. On Tuesday state Rep. James Talarico, D-Austin, is planning to launch his Senate campaign. Retired astronaut Terry Virts was the first major contender in the contest.
A July survey by the University of Texas at Tyler showed Crockett as a strong contender in a Senate primary. When asked which candidate shared their values, Crockett led with 30%, followed by O’Rourke at 29% and Allred at 28%. Respondents said Allred was the better general election candidate at 34%, with Crockett in second with 27%.
An August Texas Southern University poll showed Crockett with a favorable rating of 83%, which trailed O’Rourke’s 94% and Allred’s 85%. Talarico, a lesser-known Democrat at the moment, had a 78% favorable rating.
Crockett is confident she can connect with primary voters, who welcome her clashes with President Donald Trump and Republicans.
One pollster agreed.
“She’s very well positioned to win a Democratic primary,” said Mark Jones, a Rice University political scientist and co-author of the Texas Southern poll. “She has the image of being a fighter. She talks the talk and she walks the walk in terms of fighting the Trump administration, which is exactly what Democratic primary voters want to see.”
Jones said Crockett would be most formidable in an attorney general primary, where she would be up against state Sen. Nathan Johnson of Dallas and former Galveston Mayor Joe Jaworski.
While Crockett would be a favorite in a statewide primary, a path to victory in the general election is much more elusive.
The Texas electorate is dominated by Republicans and most of them identify as staunch conservatives. The state’s most conservative voters, especially Trump’s supporters, loathe Crockett.
Her candidacy would be a rallying cry for conservatives across the state. Depending on whether Republicans nominated incumbent Republican John Cornyn or his primary opponent, Attorney General Ken Paxton, Crockett could also struggle with independents in a state that typically rejects politicians too far left of center.
Crockett seems to recognize the general election challenge.
“I may bring out MAGA [Make America Great Again], when MAGA was not really going to show up,” Crockett said.
Crockett said motivating Black, young and disaffected voters worked in Georgia, a GOP stronghold until Democratic Sens. Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff broke through in 2020.
“If there is a candidate that can get Black voters to come out in strong numbers. If there’s a candidate who can motivate college students and get them out, then you’ve got a pretty decent shot,” Crockett said.
It’s likely Crockett would have the campaign dollars she needs — especially out-of-state money generated by her near-celebrity status.
But again, that status comes at a cost in Texas.
“Many of the things that make her very popular with Democratic primary voters don’t necessarily make her a great candidate to win a statewide race in a pink to red state like Texas,” Jones said.
As a result of all these factors, Crockett said most of her attention is on which congressional seat she should seek in 2026.
If she chooses to run in heavily Democratic District 30, that would remove an option for Veasey, who would benefit from the 200,000 Tarrant County voters there. If Crockett campaigns for District 33, also a Democratic-leaning district, it would put her on a collision course with Johnson, who has already said she’s a candidate for that seat, if the new congressional maps are upheld.
Democrats are awaiting Crockett’s decision.
“It’s a unique position that I find myself in,” Crockett said. “I represented voters in one district and they would most likely take me back. They put me in another district and I can run there. I am uniquely situated.”
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