I thought I had a good idea for a post. And in truth, it is a good idea. I was going to look at the Cardinals roster at the moment and see how much money was committed beyond this year. Primarily by trying to estimate the arbitration prices. There was one small problem. Well two really, trying to estimate arbitration salaries even a year ahead of time is extremely difficult. But I was willing to try. The real problem is, between the guaranteed contracts and the players under arb over the next few seasons, that player might not be here.
I was looking at the players who would make more than league minimum, specifically in 2027 and 2028, and there are so few players on the roster who will make any money who are good bets to still be here. The list is basically Masyn Winn and maybe Ivan Herrera, but so long as his defensive home is uncertain, I don’t really think he’s a sure thing either.
Here’s who is under arbitration right now: JoJo Romero will be a free agent after 2026 even if he’s not traded, Jorge Alcala probably doesn’t make it to 2026, and John King might not make it to 2026 either. Lars Nootbaar might get traded at the next deadline, if not this offseason. Brendan Donovan seems likely to get traded at this point. Andre Pallante is supposed to make $3.4 million next year and might price himself into getting nontendered with another bad season. It feels like 2026 is Nolan Gorman’s chance, again if he’s not traded before that. Both Alec Burleson and Matthew Liberatore are okay bets, but Burly’s one-dimensional nature leaves him open to both trades and collapsing and Liberatore’s 2nd half was just alarming enough that I can’t really pencil him as a sure thing.
Six players enter arbitration in 2027, well maybe. Two relievers, Kyle Leahy and Riley O’Brien, may qualify for Super Two, they’re right on the fringe, I would in fact say O’Brien is pretty likely to not qualify (1.129 days). Either way, both are relievers, who both don’t get paid a ton anyway, and you can’t count on them. I’ve already mentioned Herrera and Winn. Pedro Pages will qualify for Super Two, but given how many catchers are competing with Pages over the next few years, you can’t on him being here. Jordan Walker also enters arbitration… maybe. Probably. He has to be in the majors at least half a season I think. Then you have Victor Scott enter arbitration in 2028. And that’s literally the list.
What is the point of making a future payroll guess when I’m looking at this? Sometimes the future payrolls can be a little misleading because arbitration prices can add up and sometimes the stars make some pretty good money. Pete Alonso, in his last year of arbitration, made $20 million. Masyn Winn might get there… in 2029. Whenever the Cardinals want to spend free agency money, they should have a ton of money to spend.
I honestly can’t remember a time when the Cardinals future roster looked so uncertain. The obvious answer is 2007, but 2007 had Albert Pujols and Yadier Molina and Adam Wainwright. Molina and Wainwright weren’t Molina and Wainwright yet, but I don’t think anybody thought they would be traded anytime soon, so I was pretty sure they were going to be on the roster for a while. Chris Carpenter was also in year one of a five-year contract, so he wasn’t going anywhere either. Both Wainwright and Molina signed extensions starting in 2008 and Pujols was already signed through 2011.
So this is a bit unprecedented for me. By the way this is not me complaining about the future. This is not a reflection of the future outlook of this club. I’ll use Fangraphs, because it’s easy, but they have the #1 farm according to them, two top 20 prospects (Liam Doyle and JJ Wetherholt), three catching prospects in the top 100, and another two starting pitchers in the top 100. No, this is me commenting on the payroll uncertainty as in who can we depend on getting paid with the next three years. All the prospects I’ve mentioned? They ain’t making any money until 2029, and that’s only if they spend most of 2026 in the majors. Granted, rules could change in the next CBA, I don’t think they’ll change that drastically though.
I just can’t remember a payroll situation comparable personally. It was just a weird sensation when I set out to write that post and realized I couldn’t write that post.
Best Movie of each year… that I’ve seen
Okay, when I wrote the best movie in each year the Cardinals were in the World Series, I was not expecting people to stay so on target. I legit thought it would mostly be a comment section completely ignoring my post with a few exceptions and I was pleasantly surprised most of the comments got in on the fun.
Another thing that happened: I was slightly disappointed that some of the years the Cardinals made the World Series, I wasn’t that enthusiastic about my pick. Best case scenario is that I find a movie that is easily one of my all-time favorites, that I think is one of the all-time best movies, and I am super excited to share that. And any year that didn’t happen, it was sort of like “well I’m committed to this premise, but I don’t have an actual answer so I guess it’s this movie.” Which was every single 2000s answer, 1931, and kind of 1964.
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