Insider Picks Mets to Win World Series — But the Roster Tells a Different Story. DD

For the first time in nearly two decades, a longtime Mets insider is all-in.

Mar 15, 2026; Port St. Lucie, Florida, USA; (l to rt) New York Mets third baseman Brett Baty (7), shortstop Francisco Lindor (12), shortstop Bo Bichette (19) and second baseman Marcus Semien (10) gather during a pitching change in the fourth inning against the Toronto Blue Jays at Clover Park. Mandatory Credit: Jim Rassol-Imagn Images | Jim Rassol-Imagn Images

Veteran beat writer Mike Puma has predicted the New York Mets to win the World Series — a stunning shift after 17 years of covering the team without making that call. On the surface, it’s a sign of belief in a roster that has undergone major changes.

But dig a little deeper, and the optimism starts to feel… shaky.

The Post’s fine baseball preview is out today, including staff predictions. This is my 17th season on the beat, and never picked the Mets to win the W.S. My pick this year: Mets over Mariners.

I will note that my preseason pick last year was Dodgers over Blue Jays.

— Mike Puma (@NYPost_Mets) March 24, 2026

Because while the Mets look good on paper, they don’t quite look like a championship team.

⚾ A Star-Powered — But Thin — Lineup

There’s no denying the top of the Mets’ lineup is dangerous.

Juan Soto is one of the best hitters in baseball, and pairing him with Francisco Lindor gives New York an elite offensive foundation. Together, they form a duo capable of carrying an offense for stretches.

But that’s also the problem.

After those two, the lineup drops off quickly.

A true World Series contender typically rolls out a deep, relentless order — one that forces opposing pitchers to navigate danger from top to bottom. The Mets don’t have that. Beyond Soto and Lindor, the rest of the lineup profiles closer to league average than elite.

And in October, average isn’t enough.

⚠️ A Rotation Without a True Ace

If the lineup raises concerns, the rotation might raise even more.

Championship teams are built on dominant starting pitching — especially in the postseason, where elite arms can take over a series. Right now, the Mets don’t have that type of presence.

Freddy Peralta headlines the group, but even he projects more as a solid starter than a true ace. Behind him, the rotation is filled with uncertainty, both in terms of performance and durability.

That’s a risky formula for a deep playoff run.

Because when facing the best teams in baseball, you need pitchers who can shut down elite offenses — not just survive them.

🔄 A Bullpen With Gaps

The Mets did address the back end of their bullpen, bringing in Devin Williams to close and relying on Luke Weaver as a key setup option.

That duo is strong.

But getting to them? That’s where things get murky.

The middle relief group lacks both depth and high-end dominance — the kind of swing-and-miss stuff that defines elite bullpens in today’s game. And with a rotation that may struggle to go deep into games, that middle relief will be heavily relied upon.

That’s a dangerous combination.

📉 Expectations vs Reality

None of this means the Mets can’t be good.

They absolutely can.

A playoff berth is a realistic goal, and with the right breaks, they could make noise in October. But there’s a difference between being competitive and being championship-caliber.

Right now, the Mets look more like a team with upside than one built to win it all.

Which makes Puma’s prediction bold — maybe even inspiring — but also difficult to fully buy into.

Because until the roster proves it has the depth, pitching, and balance required to survive a postseason gauntlet, calling them World Series favorites feels less like insight…

…and more like hope.