Republican New Jersey gubernatorial hopeful Jack Ciattarelli is running neck and neck against Rep. Mikie Sherrill in the high-stakes race — after making rapid gains in polling over recent weeks, according to a fresh poll.
Sherrill narrowly edged out Ciattarelli 48.1% to 45.8% among likely voters, which is within the margin of error, marking a dramatic dip from the 10-point lead the congresswoman had in a Labor Day survey, a Quantus Insights Poll found.
The stunning poll shows Ciattarelli dominating with independent voters 51% to 38% and that voters across the board want a change (76%).
For much of the race, Sherrill had a commanding lead over Ciattarelli in most polling.
However, Quantus’ latest findings dovetail with a series of polls over recent weeks, including from Emerson College Polling, and an internal poll pegging the race as a dead heat.
Sherrill’s once-near-double-digit advantage has since plummeted to a 4.7 percentage-point edge in the latest RealClearPolitics polling aggregate.
Notably, the RCP aggregate underestimated Ciattarelli’s support by about five percentage points in the 2021 election.
A separate Fox News poll released Tuesday night also shows Ciattarelli gaining on his Democratic opponent — with Sherrill up 8 points (50% to 42%) among likely voters.
Sherrill’s lead was outside the 3-point margin of error in that poll.
That poll showed Ciattarelli with a weaker performance among men, only notching a 1-point edge, while Sherrill nabbed a 14-point advantage with women.
Voters also had a higher positive opinion of Sherrill (51%) compared to Ciattarelli (45%).
Ciattarelli, however, had a higher percentage of voters saying they are more enthusiastic about voting this cycle compared to past elections (50%), while 42% of Sherrill’s backers said the same, per the Fox News poll.
Meanwhile, the most significant finding in Quantus’ poll is that Sherrill was underperforming with black voters.
Despite besting Ciattarelli 61% to 19%, with 15% undecided, she is running behind the historic Democratic baseline in the Garden State.
For months, surveys have shown warning signs about Democratic support among black and Hispanic voters in urban areas.
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“As a black man, not just as a black chair, we have to do better,” New Jersey state Democratic Chair Leroy Jones Jr. said on a recent conference call, Fox29 reported.
The Quantus poll also found a significant gender gap, in keeping with national trends. Ciattarelli had a 9-point advantage with men, while Sherrill notched a 12-point lead with women.
It further showed Ciattarelli making gains with non-college-educated voters and how he will handle economic discontent in the state.
Quantus surveyed 900 likely voters from Sept. 20 to 30 with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points.
In the modern era, Democrats have not held onto the New Jersey governor’s office for more than two full terms in a row, despite the state traditionally being a liberal stronghold.
Observers often look at the off-year election races in New Jersey and Virginia as a harbinger of what’s to come in the midterms.
Back in 2021, Ciattarelli significantly beat expectations when he lost to Democratic then-incumbent Gov. Phil Murphy by about 3 points.
Former Vice President Kamala Harris beat President Trump by about 6 points last November in New Jersey.
Ciattarelli and Sherrill are set to square off again in the Oct. 8 debate. Election Day is Nov. 4.
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