Alek Manoah hasn’t lacked confidence.
Feb 22, 2026; Salt River Pima-Maricopa, Arizona, USA; Los Angeles Angels pitcher Alek Manoah (47) delivers to the plate during the first inning against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Salt River Fields at Talking Stick. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images | Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images
Earlier this week, the former Blue Jays All-Star made headlines by suggesting he played a meaningful role in Toronto’s recent World Series run — despite not throwing a single big-league pitch for the club in 2024. The comment raised eyebrows.
Now, the numbers are raising concerns.
In his first spring training with the Los Angeles Angels, Manoah is attempting to resurrect his career and secure a spot in the rotation. On the surface, his debut outing didn’t look alarming. The velocity was serviceable. The delivery appeared smooth enough.
But dig a little deeper, and the outlook becomes less encouraging.
Advanced pitch-tracking metrics — particularly proStuff+ — graded Manoah’s arsenal at just 90. That places him among the lowest-rated pitchers this spring. For context, league leaders are posting marks north of 105, with Aroldis Chapman topping the early board at 110.
Spring stats can be misleading.
Strikeout totals, ERA, and batting averages often mean little in February. But pitch quality indicators like movement, velocity, and command provide real signals — especially when a pitcher’s recent struggles have centered around those very traits.
Manoah’s downfall since 2023 has been tied directly to diminished command and inconsistency. His walk rate spiked from 6.5% in 2022 — when he finished third in Cy Young voting — to 14.2% in 2023. Though that number improved slightly in 2024, his season ended prematurely with injury and surgery.
Now 28, Manoah is trying to reestablish himself on a one-year, $1.95 million deal with the Angels.
The good news? Los Angeles doesn’t have overwhelming rotation depth. Yusei Kikuchi, José Soriano, Reid Detmers, and Grayson Rodriguez headline a group that still features questions. Behind them are several young arms with limited MLB experience.
That gives Manoah a legitimate runway.
Unless he completely unravels statistically in camp, he remains in position to open the season in the Angels’ rotation. But if the underlying pitch quality doesn’t improve, the leash may be shorter than expected.
It’s not about one outing.
It’s about whether the stuff resembles the version that once made him one of the American League’s most intimidating starters.
Right now, the data suggests it doesn’t.
There’s still time for Manoah to trend upward as spring unfolds. Pitchers often build toward sharper movement and command over multiple appearances. But in a sport increasingly driven by measurable indicators, poor early metrics aren’t easily dismissed.
For a pitcher attempting one of baseball’s most closely watched comebacks, the margin for error is thin.
And the numbers are not offering much reassurance.
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