Published Jun 25, 2024
James Tillman III is an accounting professional by trade, but sports writing is his passion. In addition to being an NBA contributor with GMS, James has 16 years of experience publishing online sports content, including stints with FanSided, Latest Basketball News, Godzilla Wins, and Total Apex Sports, to name a few. While most of his early work included providing the biggest takeaways/observations from team and player news, James has spent the last six years in the betting landscape.
James researches the most notable trends for both teams and includes them in his odds/prediction analysis articles to support his picks. Born and raised in the Windy City, James follows all of Chicago’s sports teams, and he is excited about how the new-look Chicago Sky will fare in the upcoming 2024 campaign.Sign in to your GiveMeSport account
Summary
- Liberty is favored to win but the Lynx are on a 6-game winning streak. A competitive game is expected.
- Spread favors Liberty, but Lynx is strong against the spread. Lynx won the previous matchup.
- Over/Under at 156.5 points with trends favoring OVER. Player prop bets on Collier and Ionescu.
Here is a look at which squad has the edge in this matchup and why.
| Liberty vs. Lynx Game Info | |
|---|---|
| When | Tues. June 25 |
| Where | UBS Arena |
| Time | 8:00 PM EST |
| Location | Elmont, NY |
| TV | Prime Video |
Liberty vs. Lynx – Season Stats & Betting Trends
The Liberty are the favorite vs. Minnesota
In the team’s recent outing -— a 96-75 win over the Atlanta Dream — Sabrina Ionescu led the offense with 26 points on 9-for-18 shooting from the field and 4-for-9 from beyond the arc. She also tallied 11 assists and three rebounds.
Two-time league MVP Breanna Stewart finished with 17 points, eight rebounds, and six assists, while Jacquel Jones added 15 points, 11 boards, and four dimes. The WNBA’s top-scoring team held its opponent to just 38 percent shooting overall and 16.7 percent (2-for-12) from 3-point range.
On the other side of this matchup, the Lynx have been playing some good basketball as well. After posting seven wins through its first 10 contests, Minnesota comes into this matchup riding the wave of an impressive six-game winning streak. Five of those six wins were by a double-digit margin. And like the Liberty, the Lynx have won nine of their last 10 games overall as well.
Alanna Smith added 14 points and five assists, while Courtney Williams contributed 12 points, nine rebounds, and four assists for a Lynx squad that shot just 41.9 percent from the field. The Liberty lead the field in scoring, shooting percentage, and 3-pointers made per contest. Meanwhile, the Lynx are ranked third in scoring, second in shooting percentage, and second in made 3-point shots per contest. Given these trends, this promises to be a competitive game.
Will the Liberty win the Commissioner’s Cup for the second straight season, or will the Lynx push their winning streak to seven games?
Now that we have set the stage for this matchup, let’s examine the betting trends for both sides.
GIVEMESPORT presents our picks with analysis
Spread
On the heels of a three-game winning streak, the Liberty enter this matchup as a four-point favorite (via OddShark.com). Here is a look at how both ball clubs have fared against the spread this season.
- The Liberty are 2-4 ATS in their last six games.
- New York is just 1-9 ATS in its last 10 home contests.
- The Liberty are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 matchups against Minnesota.
- In its last six “home” games against Minnesota, New York is 2-4 against the spread.
- The Lynx are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games.
- Minnesota is an impressive 6-1 ATS in its last seven road outings.
- In their last six “road” games against New York, the Lynx are 4-2 against the spread.
- In the lone regular season matchup between these teams on May 25, the Lynx won by 17 points (84-67).
- Prediction: Minnesota Lynx (+4)
The projected over/under total for this matchup is 156.5 points (per OddShark.com). Here is why going with the “over” is the smart choice.
- The total has gone OVER six times in the Liberty’s last seven games.
- In New York’s last five home outings, the OVER total is 5-0.
- The total has gone OVER 10 times in the Lynx’s last 14 matchups against New York.
- In Minnesota’s last six road contests against the Liberty, the OVER total prevailed five times.
- Prediction: OVER 156.5 points
Player Prop Bets
Napheesa Collier leads Minnesota in scoring, rebounding, and steals, thus making her the key player to watch for the road team. She currently has -115 odds of scoring more than 20.5 points and -115 odds of finishing with less than 20.5 points (via DraftKings)
Do Colliers’s numbers favorably compare to the estimated points total for this matchup? Let’s look at the tale of the tape to find out.
Prediction: Napheesa Collier OVER 20.5 points
Fresh off her 26-point, 11-assist performance against Atlanta, Sabrina Ionescu is the key player to watch for the Liberty. She currently has -201 odds of scoring more than 18.5 points and -178 odds of finishing with less than 18.5 points (via 365Scores.com)
Here is a look at how her numbers stack up against the projected points total for this matchup.
Prediction: Sabrina Ionescu OVER 18.5 points
Liberty vs. Lynx Final Picks
- The Spread: Minnesota Lynx (+4) OddShark
- Over/Under: OVER 156.5 points (OddShark)
- Player Prop Bet #1: Napheesa Collier OVER 20.5 points
- Player Prop Bet #2: Sabrina Ionescu OVER 18.5 points
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