WASHINGTON — A shocking new New Jersey governor’s race poll suggests that Republican Jack Ciattarelli has gained massively on Democrat Mikie Sherrill following a series of blistering attack ads that showed her stumbling over her words.
Both Ciattarelli and Sherrill are dead even in the Garden State with 43% support apiece, the Emerson College Polling/PIX11/The Hill survey released Thursday found.
Some 14% of voters are unsure or rooting for someone else, and the margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
The stunning poll indicates that the race has dramatically tightened as it enters the homestretch. It comes shortly after Ciattarelli’s campaign unveiled a suite of TV ads, including ones that savages Sherrill for struggling with a question about what she would do as governor.
“Wow!!! A just out poll has Jack Ciattarelli essentially beating close to incompetent Mike Sherrill in the race for Governor of New Jersey,” President Trump remarked on Truth Social.
“Jack is tough on crime and cutting taxes, two things that people really demand today. He will be a GREAT Governor.”
Most polling has shown Sherrill solidely in the lead. She has a 6.6-percentage point advantage in the latest RealClearPolitics aggregate of polling. But New Jersey public polling also has a history of underestimating Republicans in recent elections.
Notably, outgoing Gov. Phil Murphy had a 7.8 point lead in RCP before Election Day in 2021. Ciattarelli’s actual support from voters was much higher — he lost by about 3 points.
Sparse polling in the Garden State similarly appeared to underestimate Trump’s support in the 2024 presidential election, showing then-Vice President Kamala Harris with a double-digit lead. Trump only lost by about 6 points.
In the modern era, Democrats have not held onto the New Jersey governor’s office for more than two full terms in a row. If Sherrill wins, she will break that record.
This is Emerson College’s first general election poll of the New Jersey governor’s race this cycle. Its surprise result comes on the heels of an internal survey commissioned by the Ciattarelli campaign with a GOP pollster that pegged the Republican in the lead, 46%-45%.
“A stark gender divide also emerges among Garden State voters: women break for Sherrill by ten points, 46% to 36%, while men break for Ciattarelli by 12 points, 51% to 39%. Notably, women are over twice as likely to be undecided at 15% compared to 6% of men,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, noted.
Voters under the age of 40 backed Sherrill 58% to 24%, per the poll. Meanwhile, Cianttarelli beat her with voters over 50, by 52% to 36%.
Trump’s approval rating in New Jersey sits at 41% approve to 51% disapprove, while Murphy’s rating clocks in at 35% approve to 44% disapprove.
Voters were almost evenly split as to whether they want their governor to stand up to the Trump administration (51%) or work with the White House (49%).
“Both President Trump and Governor Murphy are underwater among Jersey voters. Sherrill is trying to tie Ciattarelli to Trump, at the national level, and Ciattarelli is trying to tie Sherrill to Murphy and the cost of living at the state level,” Kimball said.
Economic issues dominated voter concerns heading into the election, including sky-high energy costs after New Jersey’s Board of Public Utilities warned this year that electric bills could spike between 17% and 20%.
“New Jersey Democrats blame utility companies for the cost of utilities at 36%, whereas Republicans blame Governor Murphy at 36% — independents are split between the governor (27%) and utility companies (23%),” Kimball explained.
The Emerson College Polling New Jersey survey sampled 935 somewhat or very likely voters between September 22-23.
Many political observers view off-year races in New Jersey and Virginia as bellwethers that can be a harbinger of what’s to come in the 2026 midterm elections, which are generally expected to be a blue wave.
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