The NL East was already shaping up to be one of baseball’s toughest divisions in 2026.
Feb 28, 2026; Sarasota, Florida, USA; Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Spencer Strider (99) throws a pitch against the Baltimore Orioles during the first inning at Ed Smith Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images | Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images
Now, it might be tilting in Philadelphia’s favor.
The Phillies are chasing a third straight division title, but they’re not doing it in a vacuum. Both the Mets and Braves entered the year with something to prove after disappointing 2025 seasons. New York retooled aggressively. Atlanta hoped to rebound behind its usual star power.
But one problem continues to follow the Braves — and it just got worse.
Another key arm is down.
Spencer Strider, once a Cy Young contender and one of the most electric pitchers in baseball, is dealing with a strained oblique. While the injury may not sideline him long-term, it adds to a growing list of concerns for a rotation that already looked shaky.
And that’s where things start to unravel for Atlanta.
Last season, the Braves’ pitching staff posted a 4.48 ERA, ranking just 18th in MLB — a surprising weakness for a team known for dominance. Injuries played a major role then, and they’re doing it again now.
Strider’s absence is only part of the story.
Spencer Schwellenbach and Hurston Waldrep are already on the 60-day IL after elbow procedures. A.J. Smith-Shawver is still recovering from Tommy John surgery. Suddenly, a rotation that should have been a strength looks thin — and in some spots, unstable.
Behind Chris Sale, the options become far less convincing.
That’s a dangerous position to be in over a 162-game season.
Meanwhile, the Phillies are built in the exact opposite way.
Their rotation isn’t just solid — it’s elite.
Philadelphia led all of baseball in pitching fWAR last season and returns a group that might be even stronger. Zack Wheeler remains the ace, while Cristopher Sánchez and Jesús Luzardo are now locked in long-term after breakout performances. Aaron Nola provides consistency, and top prospect Andrew Painter adds upside to the back end.
It’s depth. It’s reliability. And most importantly, it’s healthy.
That contrast could define the division race.
Because while offense grabs headlines, pitching is what sustains success over the long haul. The Phillies have leaned on it during multiple 90-win seasons. The Braves, right now, can’t count on it.
And that changes everything.
Atlanta still has the lineup to compete with anyone. But without stability on the mound, even the most dangerous offense can only carry a team so far.
If these rotation issues linger, the Braves could find themselves fighting just to stay in the race — rather than leading it.
For the Phillies, that opens a door.
The path to another NL East title was always going to be difficult. But with their biggest rival dealing with yet another pitching setback, it just got a little clearer.
And in a division where margins are thin, that might be all they need.
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