Detroit and Seattle will play a winner-takes-all game Friday night to determine who will play Toronto for the American League pennant. One team has the league’s best pitcher, the other has this year’s home run leader and potential MVP.
Detroit and Seattle’s winner-takes-all game Friday night will decide Jays’ next opponent
They made it in New York, so they can make it anywhere, right? Still, if you ask Toronto Blue Jays fans where they’d prefer, Detroit or Seattle, there appears to be a clear preference.
The Jays will face the winner of Friday night’s game between the Detroit Tigers and the Seattle Mariners in a seven-game series for the American League (AL) pennant and a trip to the World Series.
Toronto will have home field advantage either way, with Game 1 starting 8:08 p.m. ET Sunday.
Seattle and Detroit had similar regular season records, only played the Jays a handful of times, and have been closely matched in their current division series, making it a tough call which outcome would be better for Toronto.
One team had the worst collapse in baseball’s divisional era only to save face by winning the wild-card round, the other went into a month-long hot streak to scrape into the playoffs in the last week of September. One team has the best pitcher in the AL, the other has a man nicknamed after his butt — who is also the league’s best catcher, best slugger and, arguably, its most valuable player.
Fans pulling online for Tigers
The Jays, who had the AL’s best record (94-68) and just hammered last year’s league champions into an offseason existential crisis, will likely be the favourite no matter what team they play next.
But fans online appear to be mostly pulling for the Detroit Tigers. Commenters on a Toronto Blue Jays subreddit have been overwhelmingly in favour of a Highway 401 series. Some think Detroit is weaker.
Some think they rely too much on one pitcher.
Some think they’ve been cold in the second half of the season and can be beat.
Some just like the location.
Not many wanted Seattle, a team that ended the year hot, but some were in favour.
Let’s look at the possible matchups.
Detroit Tigers (season: 87-75, 2nd place AL Central)
The Blue Jays have a historic rivalry with the Tigers, but it’s cooled recently. The teams are separated by a four-hour drive, and the Tigers have a bigger following in parts of Ontario than the Jays. The two clubs also shared a division from 1977 to 1997, both with strong, contending teams in the 1980s when their rivalry peaked.
This year, the Jays went 4-3 against the Tigers on the season, out-scoring them by a combined 35 runs to 26. A win over the Tigers in July leapfrogged the Jays into first-place in the AL East, a spot they never relinquished. The Jays later overtook the Tigers for the league’s best record.
Speaking of.
The Tigers played one of baseball’s greatest unintentional practical jokes this year. The best team in the AL for much of the season, they blew a 15 ½ game lead over Cleveland with an epic three-month collapse, losing the division to the Guardians on the final day, only to save face and immediately knock them out of the playoffs in the wild-card series.
The Tigers have held their own against the Mariners, and Javy Baez’s nine hits tie him with Toronto’s Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Ernie Clement for fourth-most in the playoffs so far.
Their crowning jewel, and biggest challenge, is a tall, 240-pound, left-handed flamethrower: Tarik Skubal.
Tarik Skubal is the runaway pick for this year’s Cy Young Award as the American League’s best pitcher (which he also won last year in a unanimous vote). In 2025, he led the league in earned-run average (2.24) while striking out 241 batters. He is also mostly excused from the Tigers’ late-season woes.
His presence usually guarantees the Tigers a win every five days.
But he lost his first start against the Mariners this series, albeit, giving up only two runs, and will have to pitch against Seattle Friday night. That means he will likely only be available to pitch against the Jays for two games, and not until the middle of the series.
Skubal pitched seven shut-out innings in his one game against Toronto this year, a game the Jays ultimately won.
Seattle Mariners (season: 90-72, AL West champs)
The Jays and Mariners have their own interesting history. B.C. baseball fans are often split between allegiance to nearby Seattle and Canada’s only major league club. Many of them will probably make the trip to Seattle if the Mariners advance.
The Blue Jays met the Mariners in the playoffs in 2022, losing in heartbreaking fashion by giving away a seven-run lead in the deciding game. The sting is still fresh.
The Jays were 4-2 against the Mariners in the regular season, sweeping them at home in their last meeting in May.
Seattle’s biggest weapon: the Big Dumper, a.k.a., Cal Raleigh.
This year’s biggest slugger has put together arguably the best season any catcher has ever had. His 60 home runs broke single-season records for the position (no catcher had ever before hit 50) and for a switch-hitter (eclipsing the great Mickey Mantle), helping him become one of two frontrunners for this year’s league MVP.
But the Jays have already dispensed with the AL’s other top MVP contender, Aaron Judge. And Raleigh hit only one home run against the Jays in six regular season games, hitting .263 with five hits.
If Seattle wins, Toronto will need to limit the damage coming off Raleigh’s bat.
The Mariners have more power than just Raleigh though, with Julio Rodriguez, Jorge Polanco and Randy Arozarena all hitting more than 25 home runs on the season. In fact, the M’s 238 home runs this year were the third-most in Major League Baseball.
Looking at pitching, Seattle’s ace, Bryan Woo, is injured and it’s still unknown if he’ll be back for the next round. But their staff is more well-rounded than Detroit’s, and their closer, Andrés Muñoz, had an impressive 1.73 earned-run average this year with 38 saves.
It’s a tough call, but the Blue Jays are a fierce opponent themselves, and some fans don’t care who they play.
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