The St. Louis Cardinals are entering a rebuild, and with veteran right-hander Sonny Gray signed through just the 2026 season, there is belief that the club could look to move him this winter.
Gray is owed $35 million in 2026, which is a huge amount of money for a team like the A’s, but if St. Louis is willing to eat some of that contract for increased prospect capital, perhaps the two teams could work out a deal.
Earlier this week, we mentioned that Cardinals second baseman Brendan Donovan could be another trade target for the Athletics to consider, and even if the A’s wanted both players, it’s unlikely that St. Louis would package the two together, since Gray’s contract would weigh down a potential return.Sep 13, 2025; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; St. Louis Cardinals starting pitcher Sonny Gray (54) throws against the Milwaukee Brewers in the first inning at American Family Field. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-Imagn Images / Benny Sieu-Imagn Images
The big question that would come up, since he would in fact have his pick of where he wanted to go, is whether he would waive his no-trade clause to return to the Athletics. There is no way to be certain, since it depends on a few different factors.
The first, is how happy he is in St. Louis, with a close second being how much he wants to pitch in October. How do those two balance out? If winning matters more, then the A’s may have a shot with a roster that is looking like a contender for a postseason spot in 2026.
The other key here would be which other teams are in the mix? Presumably another run with the New York Yankees wouldn’t be terribly appealing, given how the first round went, but if the Detroit Tigers, Toronto Blue Jays, or another team that was already in the postseason is knocking on the door, then he could end up choosing the other club.
The big factor working against the A’s here isn’t necessarily the turnover of the roster or the coaching staff since Gray’s time with the team, but instead that the team isn’t playing in a big-league ballpark at the moment.
It would only be one season (though he has a mutual option for $30 million in 2027), but how much of a nostalgia push would he get from wearing the Green and Gold, and how much sway would that hold?Sep 1, 2025; St. Louis, Missouri, USA; St. Louis Cardinals starting pitcher Sonny Gray (54) pitches against the Athletics during the first inning at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-Imagn Images / Jeff Curry-Imagn Images
With Gray owed $35 million in 2026, there is likely no way that the A’s make this trade while paying the entirety of that contract, so a decent chunk of it would have to be taken on by the Cardinals. Perhaps somewhere in the $10 million range for St. Louis to hold onto.
Given Gray’s productivity, even at the age of 35 this past season, $25 million would be a good price for the A’s for a solid starting pitcher. He held a 4.28 ERA this past season with a 3.39 FIP. Among starting pitchers, he ranked No. 12 in strikeout rate at 26.7%, while holding just a 5% walk rate. While the ERA wasn’t quite there, the underlying stats certainly were.
It also doesn’t hurt that his SIERA was 3.29, which ranked sixth in baseball, behind just Tarik Skubal (2.71), Garrett Crochet (2.86), Cristopher Sanchez (3.02), Paul Skenes (3.10) and Logan Webb (3.14). Those are all Cy Young contenders.
Adding a strikeout pitcher like Gray that can also avoid handing out free passes would be a huge boost to the A’s rotation.Jul 14, 2017; Oakland, CA, USA; Oakland Athletics starting pitcher Sonny Gray (54) pitches the ball against the Cleveland Indians during the first inning at Oakland Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-Imagn Images / Kelley L Cox-Imagn Images
Given the amount of money involved and this being just a one-year deal, the return may not quite be what Cardinals fans would be hoping for.
If St. Louis is going full rebuild and looking for prospects in the lower minors that could help them, we’re likely looking at the back-half of the A’s top-30 list on MLB Pipeline. There is a chance that someone like Joshua Kuroda-Grauer (No. 10) could be had, given the A’s abundance of young infielders, but the A’s may also be wary of trading someone like that for a one-year rental.
Given where the A’s are in their own build up, which is hoping to make the postseason for the first time since 2020 next year, the club is likely to be less willing to part with even a medium level prospect. Their window isn’t necessarily open just yet, and adding that much payroll on top of giving up a promising prospect may not be their plan to improve the roster.
That said, perhaps the club is going in a new direction. We mentioned how a lockout in 2027 could impact the A’s when they plan to arrive in Las Vegas in 2028. One way to create some goodwill for the franchise would be to not only make it to the postseason, but perhaps even make some noise once they get in.
It also wouldn’t hurt that they would be bringing back Sonny Gray, whom A’s fans loved when he was a member of the roster from 2013-17. Having him around could bring out more fans, which would be great for ticket sales that lagged behind expectations in the team’s first season in Sacramento.
So does this trade make sense on paper? With the A’s not yet pushing for a World Series run, maybe not. But there are other reasons that could still make it work, if the two sides can agree on the right prospect package to help offset the financials of the deal. As far as Gray waiving his no-trade to play for the A’s, this is a young and exciting team. He could do a lot worse in terms of landing spots.
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