Chaim Bloom and the rest of his contingent, like the rest of the league, have descended upon Las Vegas, Nevada, for the annual GM meetings. This event is held early every offseason and has been a tone setter for the rest of the winter. While most heads of baseball operations have already likely spoken to one another and canvased what each team’s needs are, and what teams could have available to the rest of the league for trade. This presents an opportuntity for teams to meet face to face and begin laying the groundwork for potential trades, to meet with player agents and establish a baseline of interest with free agents on the market, and for the Cardinals this offseason to hang the “For Sale” sign on the doorknob, kind of like a sock, still the idea is for more to enter than to stay away.
Last year at the GM Meetings, we became aware that the Cardinals were discouraged by the interest in then-closer Ryan Helsley, Staff Ace Sonny Gray was unwilling to waive his no-trade clause, and Veteran Catcher/first baseman Willson Contreras wasn’t either. Ultimately, it set the tone for a quiet winter. We also heard for the first time that the Cardinals were likely to try and trade future Hall of Fame Third baseman Nolan Arenado—no need to re-litigate that whole fiasco. For Cardinals fans’ sake, I am hopeful that the process will be far less of a roller coaster and will find finality one way or another this offseason.
Speaking of this offseason, I would expect we will receive similar breadcrumbs this week, which will help shape expectations for potential moves to come this offseason. We have already begun the process of honing in on potential targets for the offseason. 13 players were offered a 22 million dollar qualifying offer, and those players, should they decline, will have draft pick compensation attached to them. The Cardinals, who have committed to a “draft and develop” model, will not be willing to pursue such players and forego the draft capital they so desperately cling to in hopes of revitalizing their franchise. Those players include Kyle Tucker, Kyle Schwarber, Bo Bichette, Framber Valdez, Dylan Cease, Ranger Saurez, Edwin Diaz, Zac Gallen, Shota Imanaga, Michael King, Trent Grisham, Gleyber Torres, and Brandon Woodruff.
Tim Britton, of The Athletic, recently released his contract projections for a large group of pending free agents this offseason, and a few pitchers caught my attention that might fall in the Cardinals’ price range. Again, the Cardinals should be looking at reclamation projects that they can turn into long-term value. Those pitchers include:
- Dustin May 2 years/26 million
- Jordan Montgomery 1 year/18 million
- Zach Eflin 1 year/17 million
- Michael Kopech 2 years/22 million
Dustin May has struggled with injuries in his time in the show. He pitched a career high of 132 innings this season. His velocity was down 2 mph on his fastball, but the sweeper was still excellent for him. Perhaps it would make sense for him to come to St. Louis, where he has the opportunity to pitch every 5th day, in a pitcher-friendly environment, and sign a 1 year deal with an option attached? This would give both the Cardinals security and multiple years of control that would entice potential acquiring teams if it pops, and additional security for the player should his health be an issue once again in 2026.
Jordan Montgomery is looking to return to his 2023 form after signing late in spring of 2024, and he was never fully the same guy after being ridden hard in the 2023 playoffs and not having the full spring to build up; his performance and results suffered. Montgomery underwent TJ surgery at the end of March this season, putting his timetable for return around May of 2026. He might also be a 1 year deal with an option as well, considering we know that players returning generally are not quite the same in their first few starts back. Look at Sandy Alcantara as an example this season. His first half was very underwhelming, and his second half, he looked much like the Cy Young caliber pitcher he was before he was injured. Perhaps returning to a familiar environment where Montgomery had previous success would be something he and the club would be interested in.
Zach Eflin was someone that the Cardinals had serious interest in before the 2024 trade deadline. Now that Chaim Bloom is in charge, as opposed to John Mozeliak, who knows if Eflin holds the same internal appeal he did 18 months ago? That being said, Eflin has a long track record of success from his time in both Tampa and Philadelphia, and though his season in Baltimore wasn’t exactly a platform year. A right lat strain cost Eflin serious time this season and then suffered from lower back discomfort, likely as a result of overcompensating in his delivery, trying to favor away from his ailing lat. Different verse, same as the first. The Cardinals will intrigue players to a higher degree than they have in recent offseasons, as clear opportunities exist, and the infrastructure that the team is investing in and having the potential ability to resurrect guys’ careers to help them get the most out of what they have any given day is very appealing to players looking to get back on track.
Michael Kopech is the one name, in particular, that caught my attention and manifested an intriguing thought. Last offseason, we saw the New York Mets take Clay Holmes off the market, help him develop a new kick change, and turned him back into a starting pitcher. What if the Cardinals took the same approach with Kopech? They just went through the process of reverting Liberatore into a major league starter; they’re flirting with the idea of doing it with Kyle Leahy, as well. Even if not Kopech himself, could this be an avenue on the market that the Cardinals could look to pay middling price tags for boom or bust reclamation projects? Perhaps. Kopech’s biggest enemy has always been himself and his health. The guy throws absolute gas, and his Fastball-Slider-Cutter combo gives hitters fits when he’s right.
Matthew Liberatore, Michael McGreevy, and possibly/likely Andre Pallante are the most settled names in the rotation heading into 2026. Sonny Gray is widely speculated to be traded, and Miles Mikolas is in Jupiter, Florida, fishing somewhere, I’m guessing. Kyle Leahy is someone they’re very curious about in the rotation, but he’s not a proven solution to the 350 innings that are about to walk out the door. I would love for Quinn Matthews to come into spring ready to take that 5th spot, but it would be short-sighted to rely on that after his documented struggles with command at AAA. The reality is that the Cardinals WILL need a couple of exterior reinforcements to add reliable depth to the big league staff. Who, Where, When, and How are the variables that Cardinals fans are impatiently awaiting answers for, and hopefully, we will have a better understanding of some of those questions as we hit our first key stop on the offseason highway.
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