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The fifth-seeded Liberty opened their 2025 postseason the same way they closed their 2024 title run, winning a low-scoring game in overtime. This win positions New York to be the first first lower-seeded team to capitalize on the shift to a 1-1-1 schedule in the first round, with a chance to advance to the semifinals in front of the Barclays Center crowd on Wednesday night. The Liberty might have to do it without Breanna Stewart, who was second on the team with 18 points, though, after she injured her left knee while making a layup in overtime.
- Liberty coach Sandy Brondello didn’t have an update other than that Stewart would be evaluated “soon,” but losing her would be a crushing blow. The Liberty are now 13-0 when they have Sabrina Ionescu, Jonquel Jones and Stewart for all 40 regulation minutes of a game this season, but they’re 15-17 (.469) in their other games. New York went 5-9 (.357) during Stewart’s absence with a bone bruise in her right knee in July and August, including the game in which she was injured (she played 3:27 of that game).
- The Liberty nearly did themselves in with 21 turnovers leading to 15 Phoenix points. Just shy of two-thirds of those turnovers came after the break — New York had eight giveaways in the first half, 11 in the second half and two more in overtime. The Liberty made life very tough on Phoenix when the Mercury couldn’t get out and run, though. Phoenix scored 20 points on 7-for-15 (46.7%) from the field on the fast break, but it made just 18 of its other 62 (29.0%) field-goal attempts.
- One thing that was extremely refreshing to see as a Liberty fan was New York dominating the boards by a 48-31 margin, including a 10-to-5 edge in offensive boards. The Liberty finished 11th in the league in average rebounding margin (-1.7 per game), 12th in rebounding rate at both ends of the floor and 13th in offensive rebounds per game (6.8) during the regular season. Jones didn’t have a double-double, finishing with 7 points, but she had a dozen rebounds while every other Liberty starter had a half-dozen boards. New York still needs to make it a priority to get JJ more touches, particularly if Stewie is out, but it’s just as important that Jones keep making the impact she’s capable of on the boards.
The fourth-seeded Mercury lost a fourth straight game, with the previous three losses matching their worst streak of the regular season. They’ll need to snap the four-game skid on Wednesday night to force a Game 3 back in the desert on Friday night.
- Phoenix’s final three games of the regular season largely came down to its defense abandoning it, with all three opponents during that part of the losing streak putting up offensive ratings over 100 points per 100 possessions. Phoenix went 4-12 (.250) in the regular season when that happened, but it was 23-5 (.821) when holding opponents to offensive ratings under 100.0. The Liberty didn’t get anywhere close to 100 points per 100 possessions yesterday, managing an offensive rating of just 87.4. Unfortunately, the Mercury scored at a rate of just 76.7 points per 100 possessions, their worst mark in a game this season. The only other times Phoenix had an offensive rating under 80 points per 100 possessions were in road blowouts against Minnesota in early June and Las Vegas in late August.
- The Mercury had a particularly miserable time from deep yesterday, hitting just 6-of-26 (23.1%) from long range. They finished the regular season in the middle of the pack in 3-point percentage (34.0%, sixth) but have been pretty dependent on hitting 3-pointers to win. Phoenix is 16-6 (.727) when it hits more than a third of its 3-point attempts, but yesterday’s loss dropped the Mercury to 11-12 (.478) when they’re held to 33.3% or worse from deep. Similarly, the Mercury basically never lose when they hit triples at a high volume, going 15-3 (.833) when they make more than 10 shots from beyond the arc. When they make 10 or fewer, the Mercury are 12-15 (.444).
A game after Napheesa Collier became the WNBA’s second 50/40/90 shooter, the Lynx came within a missed free throw of putting up a 50/40/90 effort as a team in their playoff-opening rout of Golden State. The top-seeded Lynx trailed by a touchdown after the first quarter (28-21), but outscored the upstart Valkyries 80-44 over the final three frames in what became the most-lopsided playoff win in franchise history.
- Minnesota’s 51st playoff win extended its all-time lead to four over the Mercury and Sparks in second place. It would be poetic if the Lynx’s previous largest postseason margin of victory came in the first playoff win or the first game of the first title run in 2011, but the historical rhyme isn’t quite perfect. It was the fourth game of that 2011 run, a 28-point win over the Mercury in Game 1 of the 2011 Western Conference Finals. That mark, set in the fourth playoff win in franchise history, stood through 46 wins, seven WNBA Finals appearances and four championships before falling in this team’s first postseason game. Yesterday also marked Minnesota’s first by a 20-point margin in a playoff game since its last title run in 2017.
The Valkyries’ remarkable inaugural season, the first playoff run by an expansion team, stands on the brink after a third loss to Minnesota during a four-game skid overall. It’s unfortunate that Wednesday’s game won’t be at Chase Center itself due to a scheduling conflict, but Golden State will need the spirit of Ballhalla (and a bunch of 3-pointers to fall) to force a Game 3.
- The Valkyries went from a season-worst offensive rating of 67.1 points per 100 possessions in the regular-season finale against the Lynx to a -39.0 net rating yesterday, their second-worst in a game. They finished the first quarter 9-of-18 from the field but went 11-for-41 (26.9%) the rest of the way including 4-for-23 (17.4%) from deep in that span. The Valkyries fell to 9-13 (.409) when making worse than 33% from deep compared to a 14-9 (.609) record when they make at least 33%.
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