Coming off an excellent 2024 season, and six seasons into his career, with free agency a possibility after the 2025 season, we were all wondering what 2025 would bring.
We knew he was going to get a big payday at some point this year. Either from the Blue Jays or from someone else after the season. Thankfully, April 9th, he and the Jays agreed to a 14-year, $500 million contract, with no opt outs, no no-trade clauses. There are some incentives, extra money for MVP votes, Gold Gloves, Silver Sluggers, and a few other things.
But how would he play after signing for huge, well…..not bad:
Baseball Reference has him at a 4.6 WAR. FanGraphs 3.9, giving him a value of $31.1 million to the Jays.
He had a ..366 wOBA and a 137 wRC+.
His walk rate was up, 11.9% (from 10.3). The strikeout rate was the same as last year 13.8%.
Vlad’s line-drive rate was up (21.2% from 18.5). The ground ball rate was down (46.5% from 48.1). Fly balls down (32.3% from 33.4). Fewer of his fly balls left the park (14.3% from 17.1).
Soft contact was up (16.8% from 12.2), and hard contact was down (40.5% (sixth in the AL) from 41.4).
Vlad hit LHP (.326/.428/.519) better than RHP (.282/.367/.452).
He hit better on the road (.323/.403/.498) than at home (.262/.360/.436), the opposite of last year.
He hit much better in the second half of the season (.314/.376/.515) than in the first half (.277/.384/.434), much the same as last year.
Vlad by month:
- April: .268/.362/.402 with 3 home runs, 16 walks and 23 strikeouts in 30 games.
- May: .291/.413/.456 with 5 home runs, 21 walks and 16 strikeouts in 28 games.
- June: .290/.383/.516 with 4 home runs, 10 walks and 10 strikeouts in 25 games.
- July: .333/.443/.500 with 3 home runs, 19 walks and 17 strikeouts in 25 games.
- August: .256/.305/.535 with 6 home runs, 7 walks and 17 strikeouts in 23 games.
- September: .313/.364/.414 with 2 home runs, 8 walks and 11 strikeouts in 25 games.
He hit .307/.429/.486 with RISP.
He was better in high leverage spots (.333/.444/.484) than medium (.288/.385/.470) or low leverage spots (.282/.355/.460).
Defensively?
He had 9 errors at first base (second most in the AL, Nick Kurtz had 10). Still a .991 fielding average (league average is .994).
FanGraphs has him at a -2 outs above average at first base.
He can make sensational plays at first base, plays that no other first baseman would even think of trying, because he has a third baseman’s arm at first base. And he does understand the game. He knows what count happen before the ball gets to him. He knows the game situation.
I don’t think he’s a Gold Glover (but then I don’t think Ty France is a Gold Glover either), but I think he’s good at the position
FanGraphs has him at -2.6 runs compared to the average baserunner, much much better than his -5.6 last year.
He stole 6 bases this season, caught 3 times, so it’s pretty much a wash. We would have been just as well off if he hadn’t tried to steal, which I would strongly suggest to him if I were in charge. I don’t think he needs the extra stress on the body, since there is really no gain.
By Batting Order Position:
- Batting 2nd: 68 games, .271/.373/.415.
- Batting 3rd: 86 games, .311/390/.512.
By Fielding Position:
- First base: 133games, .288/.382/.465.
- DH: 24 games, .319/.383/.489.
Hopefully, we don’t have to hear how he can’t hit as DH anymore.
His longest hitting streak was 11 games.
His longest on-base streak was 34 games.
The longest he went without a home run was 21 games.
His longest hitless streak was 4 games.
The team was 89-65 in his starts.
His favourite team to face was the Diamondback (.600/.692/1.892 with 1 home runs in just 3 games). He hit .357/.455/.571 with 1 home run, 5 walks and 4 strikeouts vs the Tigers in 7 games. And .373/.439/.569 with 2 home runs, 4 doubles, 6 walks against the Yankees in 13 games.
His least favourite? He hit .130/.200/.174 in 6 games against the Phillies.
Times facing a starter:
- First: ..265/.344/.412
- Second: .397/.400/.500
- Third: .305/.383/.514
- He had 3 PA against a starter for the fourth time. He was 1 for 3 with a home run.
Swinging at the first pitch of an at bat he hit .384/.395/.548 with 3 home runs.
In the playoffs, Vlad hit .397/.494/.795 with 5 doubles, 8 home runs, 15 RBI, 14 walks (6 intentional), 7 strikeouts. 29 hits in 18 games, plus 14 walks.
He had a playoff run that is hard to believe. He was crushing the ball on offense, and making great plays defensively.
Comparing him to his Hall of Fame father through their age 25 seasons, he:
- Is ahead on home runs 183 to 170 (Dad is catching up).
- Is ahead on RBI 591 to 512.
- Is ahead in games 975 to 731.
- Is ahead on bWAR 25.9 to 24.4.
- Dad is ahead on OPS .965 to .861.
And, of course, Vlad is moving up the Blue Jays leader boards:
- 7th in bWAR: 25.9 (Lloyd Moseby is 26.0) 3.0 WAR next year would put him in the top five.
- 8th in Batting Average: .288.
- 9th in On Base: .366.
- 8th in Slugging: .495.
- 8th in OPS: .861.
- 14th in Games Played: 975
- 10 in Runs Scored: 571.
- 8th in Hits: 1077.
- 7th in Home Runs: 183.
- 9th in RBI: 591
- 7th in Walks: 430
Vlad was the target of trolls coming to the site. I remember it was the same with Jose Bautista. I don’t understand it. I guess it is something to do with them being the best player on the team. I’ve always thought that bad fan bases blame their best players for not winning. I guess there is jealousy involved. Vlad makes a lot of money. A certain amount of racism goes into it I’m sure.
I will never understand. However, I did enjoy it when he was at his best, particularly during the second half of the season, the playoffs, and even the trolls couldn’t complain.
The thing is he’s always going to have hot and cold stretches. That’s part of being a ball player.
Beyond that, I’m glad they have given up on the idea that he’ll play third. I hate when teams move around the star players. Vlad should have a designated position, and other players should be moved around to accommodate him.
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