The rapid rise of Shane Smith during the 2025 season was one of the most remarkable developments for the Chicago White Sox.
In just a matter of months, Smith went from being left off the Milwaukee Brewers’ 40-man roster to becoming an All-Star starting pitcher for Chicago after being selected in the Rule 5 Draft. His breakout campaign not only stabilized the White Sox rotation but also hinted that the right-hander could become a cornerstone of the team’s future.
Now, a surprising statistic has placed Smith in the same conversation as one of baseball’s most dominant young pitchers — Paul Skenes.
Smith’s fastball ranked among baseball’s best
During the offseason, a Foolish Baseball analysis examining the most valuable pitches of 2025 highlighted just how effective Smith’s fastball was.
Using run value, a statistic that measures how many runs a pitch saves or costs compared to league average, the analysis ranked the most impactful four-seam fastballs in the sport.
At the top of the list was Paul Skenes, whose fastball produced an elite +23 run value. Several other standout pitchers followed, including Jacob deGrom, Bryan Woo, Ryne Nelson, Hunter Greene, and Kevin Gausman.
Among those names was Shane Smith.
Smith’s four-seam fastball recorded a +19 run value, placing it firmly among the top ten most effective pitches in Major League Baseball last season.
In simple terms, that means Smith’s fastball alone prevented an estimated 19 runs over the course of the year.
Not Skenes — but promising company
Of course, comparing Smith directly to Skenes would be premature.
Skenes has already captured both Cy Young and Rookie of the Year honors early in his career, establishing himself as one of the most dominant pitchers in the sport.
Still, sharing statistical space with a pitcher of that caliber is encouraging for the White Sox.
For a team hoping to build its pitching staff around Smith, the performance of his fastball provides a strong foundation moving forward.
Fastball remains key to Smith’s success
While much attention has been paid to Smith’s developing changeup, which improved significantly after he joined the White Sox organization, his four-seam fastball was arguably his most important weapon in 2025.
The pitch consistently generated weak contact and strikeouts, helping Smith establish himself as Chicago’s most reliable starter.
That said, there are still areas where Smith can improve.
His walk rate was higher than ideal, and refining the location of his off-speed pitches will be a key focus as he continues to develop.
Building on a breakout season
The 2025 season represented Smith’s first full year as a starting pitcher, meaning the primary objective was building durability and increasing his innings workload.
Now that he has that experience under his belt, the next step will be refining his pitch arsenal and improving his command.
If Smith can continue developing while maintaining the dominance of his fastball, the White Sox could have a legitimate top-of-the-rotation arm for years to come.
And while he may still have a long road ahead before reaching the level of Paul Skenes, the fact that his fastball already appears in the same statistical conversation is a sign that his ceiling could be even higher than many expected.
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