White Sox fans got spoiled last year.
Salem’s Jedixson Paez (17) pitches against the Shorebirds Tuesday, April 9, 2024, at Perdue Stadium in Salisbury, Maryland. | Lauren Roberts/Salisbury Daily Times / USA TODAY NETWORK
A 19-win improvement from 2025 to 2026 wasn’t just about top prospects like Kyle Teel and Colson Montgomery arriving. It was also fueled by two unlikely contributors: Rule 5 picks Shane Smith and Mike Vasil, who became legitimate pieces instead of roster placeholders.
That kind of return is rare.
And it’s why expectations for this year’s Rule 5 selections should be tempered.
The context has changed.
On Opening Day in 2025, Chicago’s roster was thin and flexible. Fringe major leaguers and aging veterans filled out depth spots, creating opportunity. The White Sox could afford to give Smith and Vasil meaningful runway because there weren’t many internal prospects demanding immediate at-bats or innings.
That’s no longer the case.
The current roster is younger, deeper, and more competitive. There are more players with upside who need reps. That reality makes it far more difficult to carry a developmental Rule 5 pick through early-season growing pains.
This winter, Chicago selected right-handers Jedixson Paez (from Boston) and Alexander Alberto (from Tampa Bay). On paper, both bring intriguing tools.
Paez profiles as a command specialist with elite control. His walk rate ranked among the lowest in the minors in 2024, though injuries wiped out most of his 2025 campaign. Alberto, meanwhile, offers eye-catching velocity, regularly touching triple digits and flashing the look of a potential late-inning reliever.
The upside is there.
The experience is not.
Neither Paez nor Alberto has pitched above High-A. That’s a significant jump to make directly onto a major league roster. By comparison, Smith and Vasil had Triple-A seasoning before being selected, making their transition more realistic.
That difference matters.
Early spring returns haven’t eased concerns. Paez has yet to appear in a Cactus League game, though he recently threw a bullpen session. Without game reps, it’s difficult to envision him sticking on the Opening Day roster.
Alberto has made two appearances, allowing two earned runs and five hits across two innings. His stuff hasn’t looked as dominant as advertised, which complicates the case for keeping him on a roster that has legitimate bullpen competition.
And this is the uncomfortable truth about the Rule 5 Draft: most picks don’t turn into contributors.
For every Shane Smith or Mike Vasil success story, there are far more players who are returned to their original organization before summer arrives. The rules require teams to keep these players on the active roster all season or offer them back — a difficult commitment for a club trying to compete.
Chicago is trying to win more games in 2026, not conduct extended auditions.
That’s why last year’s breakthrough feels more like an exception than a new standard.
The White Sox scouting department deserves credit for finding value in Smith and Vasil. But expecting lightning to strike twice — especially with less upper-level experience this time around — may be unrealistic.
There are still weeks left in camp for Paez and Alberto to change the narrative.
But for now, fans would be wise to view 2025’s Rule 5 magic as a bonus, not a blueprint.
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