Two NL East heavyweights. Two radically different offseasons. And now — one brutal verdict that’s sending shockwaves from Queens to Philadelphia.
As spring training opens in 2026, the National League East already feels like October in February. The Philadelphia Phillies are chasing a third straight division title. The Atlanta Braves are lurking, as always. And the New York Mets? They’ve been the loudest team of the winter — but not everyone is buying the noise.
In fact, one prominent voice believes the Mets didn’t just fail to improve.
He thinks they went backward.
Mets’ Overhaul Under Fire: “One of the Least Improved Teams”
After a disappointing 2025 season, the Mets didn’t sit still. They made headlines. They reshuffled the roster. They said goodbye to franchise pillars.
Out went Pete Alonso. Gone was Edwin Díaz. Brandon Nimmo? Traded.
In their place: Jorge Polanco, Devin Williams, Luis Robert Jr., Marcus Semien, and a collection of new rotation pieces led by Freddy Peralta and Nolan McLean.
On paper, it looks like action. But MLB Network analyst and former Mets GM Steve Phillips delivered a blunt assessment on Hot Stove that turned heads across the league.
“I put them on my least improved list,” Phillips said. “I think they’ve gone backwards offensively. I actually have them in third place in the East. I don’t have them as a playoff team.”
That’s not a mild critique. That’s a warning siren.
The Alonso Problem
Pete Alonso wasn’t just another bat. From 2019 to 2024, he led the Mets in home runs. His durability was almost absurd — at least 152 games in every full 162-game season he played. He was a lineup anchor and a clubhouse constant.
Replacing that kind of production isn’t simple.
Jorge Polanco is expected to step into that void — but he’s battled injuries for multiple seasons and has played exactly one career game at first base. Alonso’s power advantage is undeniable, and defensively, the transition raises eyebrows.
If Polanco struggles or can’t stay healthy, the loss of Alonso could echo loudly by midseason.
The Closer Conundrum
Edwin Díaz wasn’t perfect, but his experience in high-pressure ninth innings mattered. Devin Williams arrives with talent — but also questions.
He lost the closer’s job with the Yankees last year and has recorded fewer than 20 saves in three of the past four seasons. That’s not exactly lockdown reliability. There’s no guarantee he holds the role all year.
In a division likely decided by razor-thin margins, uncertainty in the ninth inning can be fatal.
Injury Clouds Already Forming
Perhaps most concerning? Spring training has barely begun, and red flags are already waving.
Luis Robert Jr., acquired from the White Sox, is being limited early due to durability concerns. The once-physically-dominant outfielder has struggled to stay healthy and consistent offensively.
Brett Baty is dealing with a hamstring issue. Francisco Alvarez is being handled cautiously. And Polanco, according to Phillips, is still working toward peak conditioning.
“That should have been an offseason project,” Phillips said bluntly. “Polanco is the guy you brought in to replace Alonso. I need him midseason ready — right now.”
For a team that reshuffled its identity, the early caution feels risky. The Mets are betting that upside outweighs stability.
Phillips isn’t convinced.
And neither are some rival fanbases.
Phillies Fans Hearing Familiar Echoes
Here’s where it gets uncomfortable in Philadelphia.
Because if Mets fans feel attacked, Phillies fans feel… seen.
While New York made sweeping changes, the Phillies mostly stood pat. They re-signed Kyle Schwarber and J.T. Realmuto. They avoided splashy free agents like Bo Bichette. They didn’t engineer blockbuster trades.
Instead, they chose continuity — doubling down on an aging but proven core.
And that approach hasn’t escaped criticism.
Analysts have questioned whether “running it back” with the same nucleus is bold confidence or dangerous complacency. Concerns about starting rotation depth and outfield production hover over Clearwater like thick Florida humidity.
Steve Phillips didn’t spare Philadelphia either.
“Wheeler’s a real question mark; no Ranger Suárez. Can Taijuan Walker and Andrew Painter get it done early?” Phillips asked. “You’ve got an angry Bryce Harper and an angry J.T. Realmuto — which I like — but I worry the pitching’s not going to be the same.”
That’s the key. It’s not about star power at the top. It’s about what happens behind it.
The Rotation Questions
Both the Mets and Phillies boast impressive arms at the top of their rotations.
But beyond that?
Uncertainty.
The Phillies face early-season pressure without Ranger Suárez. Zack Wheeler’s durability and performance are under the microscope. Walker and Painter must deliver immediately, not gradually.
The Mets, meanwhile, have faith in Freddy Peralta and believe in Nolan McLean’s upside — but the rest of the rotation is far from guaranteed.
Two contenders. Two different strategies. Identical anxiety.
A Division on the Brink of Chaos
The consensus entering spring training suggested the Mets would at least grab a Wild Card spot. Many expected them to rebound strongly after an aggressive offseason.
Phillips’ prediction flips that narrative.
Third place. No playoffs.
If that plays out, it would be one of the most stunning storyline reversals of 2026.
But Phillies fans shouldn’t feel too comfortable.
Because the same questions being hurled at New York — Did they really get better? Did they overthink it? Did they miscalculate? — are swirling quietly around Philadelphia too.
The Mets may have changed too much.
The Phillies may not have changed enough.
And somewhere in Atlanta, the Braves are smiling.
The Real Pressure Cooker
David Stearns is widely considered one of the smartest executives in baseball. His calculated aggression is respected across the sport. Betting against him feels dangerous.
At the same time, Phillies president Dave Dombrowski has built a roster that’s proven it can win the division twice in a row.
So who’s right?
Is stability king? Or does bold reinvention win in a division this volatile?
Spring training games won’t answer that. But by June, the margin for error could already be gone.
One thing is certain: the NL East won’t forgive missteps.
And if Steve Phillips’ prediction hits, the backlash in Queens will be deafening.
If he’s wrong? The receipts are already saved.
Either way, Phillies fans watching the Mets get “savaged” this February might want to brace themselves.
Because the spotlight swings fast in this division.
And nobody escapes it for long.
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